Lanus 0–0 San Martin S.J.: Result & Stats

Lanus

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

San Martin S.J.

4/15/2017

Liga Profesional Argentina · Round 20Estadio Ciudad de Lanus

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Lanus46%

×Draw30%

San Martin S.J.25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LanusExpected goals in this matchSan Martin S.J.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

0.82

Lanus

1.23

San Martin S.J.

0.82

Lanus creates 50% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 9 away

1.22

creates per match

0.77

0.87

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Lanus

1.22

San Martin S.J.

0.77

allows per match

Lanus

0.87

San Martin S.J.

1.25

-0.09on par

finishing

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

Lanus-0.09on par

San Martin S.J.-0.10scores less

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lanus ↓

San Martin S.J. →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Lanus or draw

75%

Lanus or San Martin S.J.

70%

Draw or San Martin S.J.

54%

Winning margin

Lanus wins by 2+

20%

San Martin S.J. wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Lanus 1+ goals

71%

Lanus 2+ goals

35%

Lanus 3+ goals

13%

San Martin S.J. 1+ goals

56%

San Martin S.J. 2+ goals

20%

San Martin S.J. 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Lanus (draw refunded)

65%

San Martin S.J. (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lanus at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

San Martin S.J. away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.25 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lanus attack 1.22 + San Martin S.J. defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.23

San Martin S.J. attack 0.77 + Lanus defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Lanus scores more

46%

level

30%

San Martin S.J. scores more

25%

Lanus at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Lanus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

L. Ardente

San Martin S.J. · G

8.7

Match Events

8'

Maximiliano Velázquez

38'

Marcos Gelabert

46'

D. Braghieri← F. Barrientos

59'

H. Toledo← M. Velázquez

65'

Marcelo Herrera

69'

S. Rusculleda← M. Lugo

71'

N. Pelaitay← M. Gelabert

75'

Mauricio Casierra

79'

D. Cháves← J. Molina

80'

C. Rius← R. Martínez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LanusSan

Overview

65%Possession35%

15Total Shots6

5Corners5

17Fouls13

Shots

15Total Shots6

9On Target2

4Off Target4

2Blocked0

11Inside Box3

4Outside Box3

Passing

65%Possession35%

561Total Passes310

490Accurate Passes230

87%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

2Saves8

Discipline

17Fouls13

2Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

0Offsides2