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Lanus vs San Martin S.J. — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Lanus
Lanus
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
San Martin S.J.
San Martin S.J.
Marcelino Moreno 59'
4/27/2025Liga Profesional ArgentinaLiga Profesional Argentina · 1st Phase - 15Estadio Ciudad de Lanús - Néstor Díaz Pérez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Lanus46%
×Draw30%
San Martin S.J.25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lanus
1.23
San Martin S.J.
0.82

Lanus creates 50% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 9 away

creates per match

Lanus
1.22
San Martin S.J.
0.77

allows per match

Lanus
0.87
San Martin S.J.
1.25

finishing

Lanus-0.09on par
San Martin S.J.-0.10scores less

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lanus ↓

San Martin S.J. →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Lanus or draw
75%
Lanus or San Martin S.J.
70%
Draw or San Martin S.J.
54%

Winning margin

Lanus wins by 2+
20%
San Martin S.J. wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Lanus 1+ goals
71%
Lanus 2+ goals
35%
Lanus 3+ goals
13%
San Martin S.J. 1+ goals
56%
San Martin S.J. 2+ goals
20%
San Martin S.J. 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Lanus (draw refunded)
65%
San Martin S.J. (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lanus at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

San Martin S.J. away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.25 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lanus attack 1.22 + San Martin S.J. defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.23

San Martin S.J. attack 0.77 + Lanus defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Lanus scores more
46%
level
30%
San Martin S.J. scores more
25%

Lanus at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Lanus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24
C. IzquierdozLanusLanus · D
7.9

Match Events

42'
Alejandro Molina
46'
W. Bou← B. Cabrera
46'
D. Aquino← J. Ramirez
55'
F. Pena Biafore← R. Carrera
59'
Marcelino Moreno
68'
J. Cavallaro← A. Molina
73'
A. Medina←
73'
J. Menendez← S. Jaurena
73'
F. Gonzalez← F. Toloza
78'
Armando Méndez
79'
Tomas Lecanda
85'
E. Pernia← D. Gonzalez
88'
A. Segovia← Marcelino Moreno
90+4'
Agustín Cardozo
90+1'
Marco Iacobellis

Possession

51%Lanus

Shots

13Lanus

Pass accuracy

50%Lanus

Statistics

LanusSan
Overview
51%Possession49%
13Total Shots8
5Corners6
14Fouls18
Shots
13Total Shots8
4On Target1
3Off Target5
6Blocked2
7Inside Box3
6Outside Box5
Passing
51%Possession49%
387Total Passes372
307Accurate Passes293
79%Pass Accuracy79%
Goalkeeping
1Saves3
Discipline
14Fouls18
2Yellow Cards3
1Offsides2

Match Recap: Lanus vs San Martin S.J.

Lanus beat San Martin S.J. 1-0 in Liga Profesional Argentina on April 27, 2025.

Goals: Marcelino Moreno (59').

Lanus controlled possession (51%) and registered 13 shots to 8.

The match was played at Estadio Ciudad de Lanús - Néstor Díaz Pérez in Lanús, Provincia de Buenos Aires.