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San Martin S.J. vs Belgrano Cordoba — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

San Martin S.J.
San Martin S.J.
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Belgrano Cordoba
Belgrano Cordoba
S. Gonzalez 90'
M. Iacobellis 55'
T. Fernandez 53'
N. Fernandez 51'
3/1/2025Liga Profesional ArgentinaLiga Profesional Argentina · 1st Phase - 8Estadio Ingeniero Hilario Sánchez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

San Martin S.J.36%
×Draw32%
Belgrano Cordoba32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Martin S.J.
1.00
Belgrano Cordoba
0.92

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 19 away

creates per match

San Martin S.J.
0.89
Belgrano Cordoba
0.89

allows per match

San Martin S.J.
0.94
Belgrano Cordoba
1.11

finishing

San Martin S.J.-0.09on par
Belgrano Cordoba-0.10scores less

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Martin S.J. ↓

Belgrano Cordoba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

San Martin S.J. or draw
68%
San Martin S.J. or Belgrano Cordoba
68%
Draw or Belgrano Cordoba
64%

Winning margin

San Martin S.J. wins by 2+
14%
Belgrano Cordoba wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

San Martin S.J. 1+ goals
63%
San Martin S.J. 2+ goals
26%
San Martin S.J. 3+ goals
8%
Belgrano Cordoba 1+ goals
60%
Belgrano Cordoba 2+ goals
23%
Belgrano Cordoba 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

San Martin S.J. (draw refunded)
53%
Belgrano Cordoba (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Martin S.J. at home — creates 0.89, concedes 0.94 · 5 matches

Belgrano Cordoba away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.11 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Martin S.J. attack 0.89 + Belgrano Cordoba defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.00

Belgrano Cordoba attack 0.89 + San Martin S.J. defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

San Martin S.J. scores more
36%
level
32%
Belgrano Cordoba scores more
32%

San Martin S.J. at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "San Martin S.J. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27
T. FernandezSan Martin S.J.San Martin S.J.
8.3

Match Events

34'
G. Heredia
46'
S. Gonzalez← J. Cavallaro
46'
G. Compagnucci← G. Heredia
51'
N. Fernandez↳ L. Zelarayan
53'
T. Fernandez↳ H. Lopes
55'
M. Iacobellis↳ T. Fernandez
58'
T. Ostchega← N. Meriano
58'
L. Menossi← F. Quignon
58'
F. Jara← L. Passerini
62'
A. Portillo← T. Fernandez
62'
N. Watson← S. Jaurena
68'
B. Reyna
70'
F. Gonzalez← B. Reyna
74'
N. Pelaitay
78'
N. Watson
80'
F. Gonzalez← F. Anselmo
86'
M. Iacobellis
86'
L. Recalde← M. Iacobellis
90'
S. Gonzalez

Possession

45%San

Shots

12San

Pass accuracy

48%San

Statistics

SanBelgrano
Overview
45%Possession55%
12Total Shots14
5Corners7
11Fouls14
Shots
12Total Shots14
4On Target4
7Off Target4
1Blocked6
6Inside Box8
6Outside Box6
Passing
45%Possession55%
260Total Passes317
185Accurate Passes241
71%Pass Accuracy76%
Goalkeeping
3Saves1
Discipline
11Fouls14
3Yellow Cards2
2Offsides2

Liga Profesional Argentina: San Martin S.J. 3–1 Belgrano Cordoba

San Martin S.J. beat Belgrano Cordoba 3-1 in Liga Profesional Argentina on March 1, 2025.

Goals: N. Fernandez (51'), T. Fernandez (53'), M. Iacobellis (55'), S. Gonzalez (90').

Belgrano Cordoba controlled possession (55%) and registered 14 shots to 12.

The match was played at Estadio Ingeniero Hilario Sánchez in San Juan.