San Martin S.J. 0–1 Belgrano Cordoba

San Martin S.J.

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Belgrano Cordoba

S. Longo 3'

2/8/2020

Primera Nacional · Group A - 16Estadio Ingeniero Hilario Sánchez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

San Martin S.J.43%

×Draw30%

Belgrano Cordoba27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

San Martin S.J.Expected goals in this matchBelgrano Cordoba

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

0.85

San Martin S.J.

1.17

Belgrano Cordoba

0.85

San Martin S.J. creates 38% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 48 away

1.50

creates per match

0.92

0.79

allows per match

0.83

creates per match

San Martin S.J.

1.50

Belgrano Cordoba

0.92

allows per match

San Martin S.J.

0.79

Belgrano Cordoba

0.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

San Martin S.J.+0.00on par

Belgrano Cordoba+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Martin S.J. ↓

Belgrano Cordoba →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

San Martin S.J. or draw

73%

San Martin S.J. or Belgrano Cordoba

70%

Draw or Belgrano Cordoba

57%

Winning margin

San Martin S.J. wins by 2+

19%

Belgrano Cordoba wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

San Martin S.J. 1+ goals

69%

San Martin S.J. 2+ goals

33%

San Martin S.J. 3+ goals

11%

Belgrano Cordoba 1+ goals

57%

Belgrano Cordoba 2+ goals

21%

Belgrano Cordoba 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

San Martin S.J. (draw refunded)

62%

Belgrano Cordoba (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Martin S.J. at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.79 · 101 matches

Belgrano Cordoba away — creates 0.92, concedes 0.83 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Martin S.J. attack 1.50 + Belgrano Cordoba defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.17

Belgrano Cordoba attack 0.92 + San Martin S.J. defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

San Martin S.J. scores more

43%

level

30%

Belgrano Cordoba scores more

27%

San Martin S.J. at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "San Martin S.J. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

39'

53'

70'

71'

71'

D. Cardozo← P. Palacios

71'

E. Vidal← J. Ramírez

76'

T. Ostchega← N. Luján

81'

L. Ardente

82'

N. Pelaitay← M. Gelabert

82'

J. Salas← M. Rivero

86'

I. Vazquez

90+4'

N. Pelaitay

San

Belgrano

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: A. Grelak

71'▲D. Cardozo←▼P. Palacios

71'▲E. Vidal←▼J. Ramírez

82'▲N. Pelaitay←▼M. Gelabert

San Martin S.J. substitutes

CardozoVidalPelaitayCortiBarriosBertochiÁlvarez

Manager: R. Caruso

70'▲L. Sequeira←▼R. Noir

76'▲T. Ostchega←▼N. Luján

82'▲J. Salas←▼M. Rivero

Belgrano Cordoba substitutes

SequeiraOstchegaSalasEstigarribiaBarbieriTecheraFranco

Primera Nacional: San Martin S.J. 0–1 Belgrano Cordoba

Belgrano Cordoba beat San Martin S.J. 1-0 in Primera Nacional on February 8, 2020.

Goals: S. Longo (3').

The match was played at Estadio Ingeniero Hilario Sánchez in San Juan, Provincia de San Juan.

San Martin S.J. vs Belgrano Cordoba — Primera Nacional 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Primera Nacional: San Martin S.J. 0–1 Belgrano Cordoba