Belgrano Cordoba 0–0 San Martin S.J.

Belgrano Cordoba

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

San Martin S.J.

9/11/2025

Liga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 8Estadio Julio Cesar Villagra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Belgrano Cordoba40%

×Draw32%

San Martin S.J.28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Belgrano CordobaExpected goals in this matchSan Martin S.J.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.05

0.82

Belgrano Cordoba

1.05

San Martin S.J.

0.82

Belgrano Cordoba creates 28% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 8 away

0.98

creates per match

0.67

0.97

allows per match

1.12

creates per match

Belgrano Cordoba

0.98

San Martin S.J.

0.67

allows per match

Belgrano Cordoba

0.97

San Martin S.J.

1.12

+0.02on par

finishing

-0.17scores less than expected

finishing

Belgrano Cordoba+0.02on par

San Martin S.J.-0.17scores less

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Belgrano Cordoba ↓

San Martin S.J. →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–113%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

56%44%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Belgrano Cordoba or draw

72%

Belgrano Cordoba or San Martin S.J.

68%

Draw or San Martin S.J.

60%

Winning margin

Belgrano Cordoba wins by 2+

16%

San Martin S.J. wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Belgrano Cordoba 1+ goals

65%

Belgrano Cordoba 2+ goals

28%

Belgrano Cordoba 3+ goals

9%

San Martin S.J. 1+ goals

56%

San Martin S.J. 2+ goals

20%

San Martin S.J. 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Belgrano Cordoba (draw refunded)

59%

San Martin S.J. (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Belgrano Cordoba at home — creates 0.98, concedes 0.97 · 17 matches

San Martin S.J. away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.12 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Belgrano Cordoba attack 0.98 + San Martin S.J. defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.05

San Martin S.J. attack 0.67 + Belgrano Cordoba defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Belgrano Cordoba scores more

40%

level

32%

San Martin S.J. scores more

28%

Belgrano Cordoba at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Belgrano Cordoba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24

A. Maldonado

Belgrano Cordoba · D

7.6

Match Events

18'

23'

37'

58'

59'

60'

L. Menossi← R. A. Saravia Salvia

60'

G. Compagnucci← U. Sanchez

66'

H. Tijanovich← M. Iacobellis

71'

B. Reyna← L. Morales

71'

L. Passerini← N. Fernandez

73'

S. Jaurena← S. Gonzalez

73'

F. Anselmo← I. Maestro

82'

F. Gonzalez← S. Longo

85'

Lucas Passerini

88'

A. Molina← S. Salle

88'

M. Orihuela← D. Gonzalez

90+8'

Lucas Menossi

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BelgranoSan

Overview

61%Possession39%

10Total Shots7

0.92Expected Goals (xG)0.42

6Corners2

20Fouls14

Shots

10Total Shots7

2On Target1

6Off Target4

2Blocked2

8Inside Box4

2Outside Box3

Passing

61%Possession39%

395Total Passes261

313Accurate Passes183

79%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

0.07Goals Prevented0.07

Discipline

20Fouls14

4Yellow Cards3

1Offsides3