San Marino 0–4 Cyprus: Result & Stats | League #32

San Marino

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 1

Cyprus

A. Kakoullis 79'

G. Kastanos 67' (pen)

S. Andreou 59'

L. Loizou 9'

10/12/2025

League #32 · Group Stage - 8San Marino Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

San Marino19%

×Draw20%

Cyprus61%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

San MarinoExpected goals in this matchCyprus

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

2.13

San Marino

1.10

Cyprus

2.13

Cyprus creates 94% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

0.00

creates per match

1.00

3.25

allows per match

2.20

creates per match

San Marino

0.00

Cyprus

1.00

allows per match

San Marino

3.25

Cyprus

2.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

San Marino+0.00on par

Cyprus+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Marino ↓

Cyprus →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–29%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–25%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

San Marino or draw

39%

San Marino or Cyprus

80%

Draw or Cyprus

81%

Winning margin

San Marino wins by 2+

7%

Cyprus wins by 2+

38%

Team goals

San Marino 1+ goals

67%

San Marino 2+ goals

30%

San Marino 3+ goals

10%

Cyprus 1+ goals

88%

Cyprus 2+ goals

63%

Cyprus 3+ goals

35%

Draw no bet

San Marino (draw refunded)

24%

Cyprus (draw refunded)

76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Marino at home — creates 0.00, concedes 3.25 · 4 matches

Cyprus away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Marino attack 0.00 + Cyprus defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.10

Cyprus attack 1.00 + San Marino defence 3.25 → ÷2 → 2.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

San Marino scores more

19%

level

20%

Cyprus scores more

61%

Cyprus at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Cyprus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

G. Kastanos

Cyprus · M

8.2

Match Events

9'

F. Berardi← A. Contadini

9'

41'

45+3'

45+3'

46'

G. Matteoni← M. Sammaritani

51'

Lorenzo Lazzari

54'

Anderson Correia← K. Pileas

54'

C. Kyriakou← K. Artymatas

59'

S. Andreou

61'

N. Sensoli← L. Lazzari

61'

M. Valli Casadei← L. Capicchioni

63'

H. Kyprianou← C. Charalampous

63'

A. Kakoullis← I. Pittas

67'

G. KastanosPenalty

70'

Konstantinos Laifis

73'

N. Koutsakos← G. Kastanos

77'

G. Valentini← M. Cevoli

79'

A. Kakoullis↳ Anderson Correia

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SanCyprus

Overview

29%Possession71%

5Total Shots18

0.81Expected Goals (xG)3.19

2Corners5

15Fouls13

Shots

5Total Shots18

0On Target7

4Off Target6

1Blocked5

1Inside Box12

4Outside Box6

Passing

29%Possession71%

242Total Passes600

181Accurate Passes524

75%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

3Saves0

Discipline

15Fouls13

2Yellow Cards3

0Offsides1