San Marino 1–4 Cyprus: Result & Stats | Friendlies

San Marino

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 1

Cyprus

S. Giocondi 81'

A. Kakoullis 83'

G. Kastanos 55', 53'

G. Satsias 45+2'

6/11/2024

Friendlies · Friendlies 2Stadio Olimpico di Serravalle

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

San Marino27%

×Draw24%

Cyprus48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

San MarinoExpected goals in this matchCyprus

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

1.64

San Marino

1.18

Cyprus

1.64

Cyprus creates 39% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 11 away

0.45

creates per match

1.55

1.73

allows per match

1.91

creates per match

San Marino

0.45

Cyprus

1.55

allows per match

San Marino

1.73

Cyprus

1.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

San Marino+0.00on par

Cyprus+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Marino ↓

Cyprus →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

San Marino or draw

52%

San Marino or Cyprus

76%

Draw or Cyprus

73%

Winning margin

San Marino wins by 2+

11%

Cyprus wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

San Marino 1+ goals

69%

San Marino 2+ goals

33%

San Marino 3+ goals

12%

Cyprus 1+ goals

81%

Cyprus 2+ goals

49%

Cyprus 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

San Marino (draw refunded)

36%

Cyprus (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Marino at home — creates 0.45, concedes 1.73 · 11 matches

Cyprus away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.91 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Marino attack 0.45 + Cyprus defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.18

Cyprus attack 1.55 + San Marino defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

San Marino scores more

27%

level

24%

Cyprus scores more

48%

Cyprus at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Cyprus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'

S. Pancotti← F. Berardi

45+2'

G. Satsias

46'

S. Giocondi← N. Sensoli

46'

C. Kyriakou← D. Spoljaric

46'

A. Kakoullis← L. Loizou

46'

A. Panagiotou Filiotis← G. Satsias

53'

G. Kastanos

55'

G. Kastanos

58'

Michele Cevoli

62'

A. Chrysostomou← G. Kastanos

62'

A. Katsantonis← I. Pittas

68'

K. Pileas← G. Malekkides

74'

M. Vitaioli← N. Nanni

74'

G. Valentini← M. Cevoli

74'

M. Mularoni← A. Contadini

81'

Simone Giocondi

81'

S. Giocondi

83'

A. Kakoullis

86'

V. Casadei← M. Battistini

Possession

Shots

Statistics

SanCyprus

Overview

29%Possession71%

7Total Shots20

5Corners10

17Fouls16

Shots

7Total Shots20

4On Target10

2Off Target5

1Blocked5

Passing

29%Possession71%

Goalkeeping

6Saves3

Discipline

17Fouls16

2Yellow Cards0

0Red Cards0

0Offsides1