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Cyprus vs San Marino — Euro Championship 2024

Cyprus
Cyprus
FT
5 – 0
HT: 4 – 0
San Marino
San Marino
K. Laifis 56'
G. Efrem 31'
I. Kousoulos 26'
P. Soteriou 23' (pen), 19' (pen)
3/21/2019Euro ChampionshipEuro Championship · Qualifying Round - 1Neo GSP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Cyprus82%
×Draw10%
San Marino7%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cyprus
3.75
San Marino
1.13

Cyprus creates 232% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

Cyprus
1.50
San Marino
0.00

allows per match

Cyprus
2.25
San Marino
6.00

finishing

Cyprus+0.00on par
San Marino+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cyprus ↓

San Marino →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–14%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–18%
4–24%
4–32%
4–40%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 74% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
69%31%4.5
49%51%

Double chance

Cyprus or draw
93%
Cyprus or San Marino
90%
Draw or San Marino
18%

Winning margin

Cyprus wins by 2+
66%
San Marino wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Cyprus 1+ goals
97%
Cyprus 2+ goals
88%
Cyprus 3+ goals
70%
San Marino 1+ goals
68%
San Marino 2+ goals
31%
San Marino 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Cyprus (draw refunded)
92%
San Marino (draw refunded)
8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cyprus at home — creates 1.50, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

San Marino away — creates 0.00, concedes 6.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cyprus attack 1.50 + San Marino defence 6.00 → ÷2 → 3.75

San Marino attack 0.00 + Cyprus defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 82%?"

Cyprus scores more
82%
level
10%
San Marino scores more
7%

Cyprus at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "Cyprus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
G. EfremCyprusCyprus · M
8.8

Match Events

18'
Davide Simoncini
19'
P. SoteriouPenalty
20'
Mattia Giardi
20'
Enrico Golinucci
23'
P. SoteriouPenalty
26'
I. Kousoulos↳ G. Efrem
27'
A. Makris← P. Soteriou
31'
G. Efrem↳ N. Mytides
46'
A. Hirsch← D. Rinaldi
46'
M. Vitaioli← N. Nanni
54'
M. Špoljarić← F. Papoulis
56'
K. Laifis
65'
G. Merkis← J. Demetriou
71'
Mirko Palazzi
74'
L. Lunadei← M. Giardi

Possession

78%Cyprus

Shots

32Cyprus

Pass accuracy

60%Cyprus

Statistics

CyprusSan
Overview
78%Possession22%
32Total Shots1
12Corners0
7Fouls11
Shots
32Total Shots1
10On Target0
12Off Target1
10Blocked0
18Inside Box1
14Outside Box0
Passing
78%Possession22%
647Total Passes181
586Accurate Passes108
91%Pass Accuracy60%
Goalkeeping
0Saves5
Discipline
7Fouls11
0Yellow Cards4
2Offsides2

Match Recap: Cyprus vs San Marino

Cyprus beat San Marino 5-0 in Euro Championship on March 21, 2019.

Goals: P. Soteriou (19' pen, 23' pen), I. Kousoulos (26'), G. Efrem (31'), K. Laifis (56').

Cyprus controlled possession (78%) and registered 32 shots to 1.

The match was played at Neo GSP in Levkosía.