San Lorenzo 0–0 River Plate: Result & Stats

San Lorenzo

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

River Plate

2/2/2025

Liga Profesional Argentina · 1st Phase - 3Estadio Pedro Bidegain

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

San Lorenzo46%

×Draw31%

River Plate22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

San LorenzoExpected goals in this matchRiver Plate

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

0.69

San Lorenzo

1.14

River Plate

0.69

San Lorenzo creates 65% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 15 away

1.25

creates per match

0.73

0.64

allows per match

1.02

creates per match

San Lorenzo

1.25

River Plate

0.73

allows per match

San Lorenzo

0.64

River Plate

1.02

-0.39scores less than expected

finishing

+0.07on par

finishing

San Lorenzo-0.39scores less

River Plate+0.07on par

Total goals

Under72
Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Lorenzo ↓

River Plate →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–113%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–17%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

55%45%2.5

28%72%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

San Lorenzo or draw

78%

San Lorenzo or River Plate

69%

Draw or River Plate

54%

Winning margin

San Lorenzo wins by 2+

20%

River Plate wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

San Lorenzo 1+ goals

68%

San Lorenzo 2+ goals

32%

San Lorenzo 3+ goals

11%

River Plate 1+ goals

50%

River Plate 2+ goals

15%

River Plate 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

San Lorenzo (draw refunded)

68%

River Plate (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Lorenzo at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.64 · 14 matches

River Plate away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.02 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Lorenzo attack 1.25 + River Plate defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.14

River Plate attack 0.73 + San Lorenzo defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

San Lorenzo scores more

46%

level

31%

River Plate scores more

22%

San Lorenzo at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "San Lorenzo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

F. Armani

River Plate · G

7.7

Match Events

5'

Enzo PérezGoal cancelled

9'

Ezequiel Cerutti

9'

Matias Reali

29'

Sebastián Driussi

46'

A. Vombergar← E. Cerutti

61'

Lucas Martínez Quarta

63'

Jhohan Romaña

63'

Marcos Acuña

64'

R. Aliendro← L. Martinez Quarta

64'

F. Colidio← S. Driussi

65'

N. Fernandez← M. Lanzini

68'

M. Rojas← E. Perez

74'

E. Cecchini← A. Cuello

81'

S. Simon← Giuliano Galoppo

84'

Miguel Borja

89'

N. Dominguez← N. Tripichio

89'

A. Ladstatter← M. Reali

90+1'

Agustin Ladstatter

90+3'

Gonzalo Montiel

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SanRiver

Overview

36%Possession64%

9Total Shots11

4Corners4

14Fouls17

Shots

9Total Shots11

3On Target3

5Off Target5

1Blocked3

5Inside Box8

4Outside Box3

Passing

36%Possession64%

241Total Passes440

164Accurate Passes347

68%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

14Fouls17

4Yellow Cards5

2Offsides1