Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

San Lorenzo vs River Plate — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

San Lorenzo
San Lorenzo
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
River Plate
River Plate
7/8/2023Liga Profesional ArgentinaLiga Profesional Argentina · Round 24Estadio Pedro Bidegaín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

San Lorenzo46%
×Draw31%
River Plate22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Lorenzo
1.14
River Plate
0.69

San Lorenzo creates 65% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 15 away

creates per match

San Lorenzo
1.25
River Plate
0.73

allows per match

San Lorenzo
0.64
River Plate
1.02

finishing

San Lorenzo-0.39scores less
River Plate+0.07on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Lorenzo ↓

River Plate →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

San Lorenzo or draw
78%
San Lorenzo or River Plate
69%
Draw or River Plate
54%

Winning margin

San Lorenzo wins by 2+
20%
River Plate wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

San Lorenzo 1+ goals
68%
San Lorenzo 2+ goals
32%
San Lorenzo 3+ goals
11%
River Plate 1+ goals
50%
River Plate 2+ goals
15%
River Plate 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

San Lorenzo (draw refunded)
68%
River Plate (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Lorenzo at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.64 · 14 matches

River Plate away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.02 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Lorenzo attack 1.25 + River Plate defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.14

River Plate attack 0.73 + San Lorenzo defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

San Lorenzo scores more
46%
level
31%
River Plate scores more
22%

San Lorenzo at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "San Lorenzo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5
J. ElíasSan LorenzoSan Lorenzo · M
7.7

Match Events

12'
G. Campi← C. Sánchez
33'
Nahuel Barrios
37'
Francisco Perruzzi
42'
Enzo Pérez
45+2'
Augusto Batalla
45+2'
Lucas Beltrán
59'
Nicolás de la Cruz
59'
P. Solari← N. de la Cruz
70'
Nahuel Barrios
70'
Nahuel Barrios
74'
M. Borja← M. Casco
74'
A. Palavecino← E. Pérez
76'
G. Maroni← F. Perruzzi
77'
E. Irala← I. Leguizamón

Possession

32%San

Shots

9San

Pass accuracy

44%San

Statistics

SanRiver
Overview
32%Possession68%
9Total Shots13
9Corners7
16Fouls12
Shots
9Total Shots13
5On Target3
1Off Target7
3Blocked3
8Inside Box5
1Outside Box8
Passing
32%Possession68%
262Total Passes564
184Accurate Passes494
70%Pass Accuracy88%
Goalkeeping
3Saves5
Discipline
16Fouls12
4Yellow Cards3
1Red Cards0
1Offsides1

Match Recap: San Lorenzo vs River Plate

San Lorenzo and River Plate drew 0-0 in Liga Profesional Argentina on July 8, 2023.

River Plate controlled possession (68%) and registered 13 shots to 9.

The match was played at Estadio Pedro Bidegaín in Capital Federal, Ciudad de Buenos Aires.