River Plate 1–1 San Lorenzo: Result & Stats

River Plate

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

San Lorenzo

M. Meza 58'

Muniain 66' (pen)

12/5/2024

Liga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 24Estadio Mâs Monumental

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 17+ matches

River Plate52%

×Draw27%

San Lorenzo21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

River PlateExpected goals in this matchSan Lorenzo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

0.80

River Plate

1.43

San Lorenzo

0.80

River Plate creates 79% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 17 away

1.92

creates per match

0.86

0.75

allows per match

0.93

creates per match

River Plate

1.92

San Lorenzo

0.86

allows per match

River Plate

0.75

San Lorenzo

0.93

+0.13scores more than expected

finishing

+0.08on par

finishing

River Plate+0.13scores more

San Lorenzo+0.08on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

River Plate ↓

San Lorenzo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

River Plate or draw

79%

River Plate or San Lorenzo

73%

Draw or San Lorenzo

48%

Winning margin

River Plate wins by 2+

26%

San Lorenzo wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

River Plate 1+ goals

76%

River Plate 2+ goals

42%

River Plate 3+ goals

17%

San Lorenzo 1+ goals

55%

San Lorenzo 2+ goals

19%

San Lorenzo 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

River Plate (draw refunded)

71%

San Lorenzo (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

River Plate at home — creates 1.92, concedes 0.75 · 21 matches

San Lorenzo away — creates 0.86, concedes 0.93 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

River Plate attack 1.92 + San Lorenzo defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.43

San Lorenzo attack 0.86 + River Plate defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

River Plate scores more

52%

level

27%

San Lorenzo scores more

21%

River Plate at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "River Plate will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

M. Meza

River Plate · M

7.9

Match Events

33'

Eric Remedi

43'

Leandro González Pírez

58'

M. Meza

64'

Alexis CuelloPenalty confirmed

66'

MuniainPenalty

67'

G. Martínez← M. Lanzini

68'

R. Aliendro← S. Simón

68'

M. Borja← F. Colidio

75'

I. Leguizamón← E. Cerutti

75'

A. Vombergar← A. Cuello

80'

A. Bareiro← P. Solari

80'

F. Mastantuono← F. Bustos

89'

S. Sosa← E. Irala

90+6'

D. Herrera← Muniain

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RiverSan

Overview

68%Possession32%

20Total Shots8

1.56Expected Goals (xG)1.23

6Corners3

17Fouls11

Shots

20Total Shots8

6On Target4

10Off Target1

4Blocked3

13Inside Box7

7Outside Box1

Passing

68%Possession32%

511Total Passes245

421Accurate Passes146

82%Pass Accuracy60%

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

-0.13Goals Prevented-0.13

Discipline

17Fouls11

1Yellow Cards1

0Offsides3