San Lorenzo 2–0 Patronato: Result & Stats

San Lorenzo

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Patronato

A. Gaich 21', 4'

12/1/2019

Liga Profesional Argentina · Round 15Estadio Pedro Bidegaín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

San Lorenzo49%

×Draw27%

Patronato24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

San LorenzoExpected goals in this matchPatronato

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

0.91

San Lorenzo

1.42

Patronato

0.91

San Lorenzo creates 56% more chances

Season form · 123 home / 69 away

1.14

creates per match

0.83

0.99

allows per match

1.70

creates per match

San Lorenzo

1.14

Patronato

0.83

allows per match

San Lorenzo

0.99

Patronato

1.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

San Lorenzo+0.00on par

Patronato+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Lorenzo ↓

Patronato →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

San Lorenzo or draw

76%

San Lorenzo or Patronato

73%

Draw or Patronato

51%

Winning margin

San Lorenzo wins by 2+

24%

Patronato wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

San Lorenzo 1+ goals

76%

San Lorenzo 2+ goals

41%

San Lorenzo 3+ goals

17%

Patronato 1+ goals

60%

Patronato 2+ goals

23%

Patronato 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

San Lorenzo (draw refunded)

67%

Patronato (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Lorenzo at home — creates 1.14, concedes 0.99 · 123 matches

Patronato away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.70 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Lorenzo attack 1.14 + Patronato defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.42

Patronato attack 0.83 + San Lorenzo defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

San Lorenzo scores more

49%

level

27%

Patronato scores more

24%

San Lorenzo at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "San Lorenzo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12

S. Torrico

San Lorenzo · G

8.8

Match Events

4'

21'

31'

51'

58'

L. Menossi← J. Ramírez

63'

Martin Aruga

67'

N. Delgadillo← M. Aruga

72'

J. Palacios← G. Poblete

77'

N. Blandi← A. Gaich

77'

J. Barreto← G. Compagnucci

78'

Cristian Tarragona

82'

J. Chicco← S. Briñone

90'

Julián Palacios

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SanPatronato

Overview

53%Possession47%

12Total Shots24

5Corners10

10Fouls19

Shots

12Total Shots24

5On Target7

5Off Target11

2Blocked6

7Inside Box13

5Outside Box11

Passing

53%Possession47%

394Total Passes317

304Accurate Passes226

77%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

7Saves3

Discipline

10Fouls19

1Yellow Cards4

1Offsides3

Liga Profesional Argentina: San Lorenzo 2–0 Patronato

San Lorenzo beat Patronato 2-0 in Liga Profesional Argentina on December 1, 2019.

Goals: A. Gaich (4', 21').

San Lorenzo controlled possession (53%) and registered 12 shots to 24.

The match was played at Estadio Pedro Bidegaín in Capital Federal, Ciudad de Buenos Aires.

San Lorenzo vs Patronato — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Liga Profesional Argentina: San Lorenzo 2–0 Patronato