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Patronato vs San Lorenzo — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Patronato
Patronato
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
San Lorenzo
San Lorenzo
J. Giani 49'
M. Estigarribia 46'
L. Kruspzky 45+3'
N. Castro 59' (OG)
A. Vombergar 11'
8/13/2022Liga Profesional ArgentinaLiga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 13Estadio Presbítero Bartolomé Grella

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Patronato36%
×Draw30%
San Lorenzo34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Patronato
1.04
San Lorenzo
1.00

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 66 home / 121 away

creates per match

Patronato
1.09
San Lorenzo
0.88

allows per match

Patronato
1.11
San Lorenzo
0.98

finishing

Patronato+0.00on par
San Lorenzo+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Patronato ↓

San Lorenzo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–113%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Patronato or draw
66%
Patronato or San Lorenzo
70%
Draw or San Lorenzo
64%

Winning margin

Patronato wins by 2+
14%
San Lorenzo wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Patronato 1+ goals
65%
Patronato 2+ goals
28%
Patronato 3+ goals
9%
San Lorenzo 1+ goals
63%
San Lorenzo 2+ goals
26%
San Lorenzo 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Patronato (draw refunded)
51%
San Lorenzo (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Patronato at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.11 · 66 matches

San Lorenzo away — creates 0.88, concedes 0.98 · 121 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Patronato attack 1.09 + San Lorenzo defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.04

San Lorenzo attack 0.88 + Patronato defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Patronato scores more
36%
level
30%
San Lorenzo scores more
34%

Patronato at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Patronato will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

40
J. GianiPatronatoPatronato · M
8.2

Match Events

11'
A. Vombergar↳ A. Martegani
14'
J. Elias
23'
G. Hernandez
34'
N. Castro
45+4'
I. Mendez
45+3'
L. Kruspzky↳ F. Leys
46'
J. Giani← A. Sosa
46'
F. Cobos← L. Kruspzky
46'
M. Estigarribia← A. Rodríguez
46'
M. Estigarribia↳ J. Giani
49'
J. Giani↳ M. Estigarribia
59'
N. CastroOwn goal
67'
I. Leguizamón← E. Cerutti
67'
G. Campi← G. Hernández
72'
L. Mosevich← J. Guasone
80'
T. Banega← J. Acevedo
80'
G. Maroni← A. Martegani
80'
M. Braida← N. Fernández Mercau
85'
G. Luján← I. Méndez

Possession

59%Patronato

Shots

11Patronato

Pass accuracy

53%Patronato

Statistics

PatronatoSan
Overview
59%Possession41%
11Total Shots12
3Corners4
13Fouls10
Shots
11Total Shots12
5On Target3
4Off Target6
2Blocked3
5Inside Box9
6Outside Box3
Passing
59%Possession41%
417Total Passes279
301Accurate Passes176
72%Pass Accuracy63%
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
Discipline
13Fouls10
1Yellow Cards3
2Offsides0

Liga Profesional Argentina: Patronato 3–2 San Lorenzo

Patronato beat San Lorenzo 3-2 in Liga Profesional Argentina on August 13, 2022.

Goals: A. Vombergar (11'), L. Kruspzky (45+3'), M. Estigarribia (46'), J. Giani (49'), N. Castro (59' o.g.).

Patronato controlled possession (59%) and registered 11 shots to 12.

The match was played at Estadio Presbítero Bartolomé Grella in Paraná, Provincia de Entre Ríos.