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San Lorenzo vs Patronato — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

San Lorenzo
San Lorenzo
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Patronato
Patronato
F. Mussis 88'
G. Rodríguez 76'
A. Gaich 7'
G. Carabajal 19'
P. Ledesma 14'
9/21/2018Liga Profesional ArgentinaLiga Profesional Argentina · Round 6Estadio Pedro Bidegain

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

San Lorenzo49%
×Draw27%
Patronato24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Lorenzo
1.42
Patronato
0.91

San Lorenzo creates 56% more chances

Season form · 123 home / 69 away

creates per match

San Lorenzo
1.14
Patronato
0.83

allows per match

San Lorenzo
0.99
Patronato
1.70

finishing

San Lorenzo+0.00on par
Patronato+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Lorenzo ↓

Patronato →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

San Lorenzo or draw
76%
San Lorenzo or Patronato
73%
Draw or Patronato
51%

Winning margin

San Lorenzo wins by 2+
24%
Patronato wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

San Lorenzo 1+ goals
76%
San Lorenzo 2+ goals
41%
San Lorenzo 3+ goals
17%
Patronato 1+ goals
60%
Patronato 2+ goals
23%
Patronato 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

San Lorenzo (draw refunded)
67%
Patronato (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Lorenzo at home — creates 1.14, concedes 0.99 · 123 matches

Patronato away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.70 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Lorenzo attack 1.14 + Patronato defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.42

Patronato attack 0.83 + San Lorenzo defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

San Lorenzo scores more
49%
level
27%
Patronato scores more
24%

San Lorenzo at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "San Lorenzo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2
G. RodríguezSan LorenzoSan Lorenzo · D
7.8

Match Events

7'
A. Gaich
14'
P. Ledesma↳ M. Sperduti
19'
G. Carabajal↳ M. Sperduti
50'
F. Bravo← P. Ledesma
56'
Franco Mussis
56'
D. Hernández← F. Moyano
61'
Bautista Merlini
61'
M. Palacios← B. Merlini
66'
P. Mouche← C. Barrios
67'
M. Garrido← S. Briñone
76'
G. Rodríguez
77'
Gonzalo Rodríguez
79'
Federico Bravo
83'
A. Peralta← M. Sperduti
88'
F. Mussis↳ D. Hernández

Possession

64%San

Shots

14San

Pass accuracy

56%San

Statistics

SanPatronato
Overview
64%Possession36%
14Total Shots8
7Corners3
10Fouls18
Shots
14Total Shots8
4On Target3
5Off Target4
5Blocked1
8Inside Box3
6Outside Box5
Passing
64%Possession36%
551Total Passes311
437Accurate Passes194
79%Pass Accuracy62%
Goalkeeping
1Saves1
Discipline
10Fouls18
3Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0
2Offsides0

Match Recap: San Lorenzo vs Patronato

San Lorenzo beat Patronato 3-2 in Liga Profesional Argentina on September 21, 2018.

Goals: A. Gaich (7'), P. Ledesma (14'), G. Carabajal (19'), G. Rodríguez (76'), F. Mussis (88').

San Lorenzo controlled possession (64%) and registered 14 shots to 8.

The match was played at Estadio Pedro Bidegain in Flores.