San Lorenzo 1–1 Lanus: Result & Stats

San Lorenzo

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Lanus

3/28/2025

Liga Profesional Argentina · 1st Phase - 11Estadio Pedro Bidegain

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 122+ matches

San Lorenzo43%

×Draw28%

Lanus29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

San LorenzoExpected goals in this matchLanus

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.02

San Lorenzo

1.29

Lanus

1.02

San Lorenzo creates 26% more chances

Season form · 123 home / 122 away

1.13

creates per match

1.07

0.98

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

San Lorenzo

1.13

Lanus

1.07

allows per match

San Lorenzo

0.98

Lanus

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

San Lorenzo+0.00on par

Lanus+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Lorenzo ↓

Lanus →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

San Lorenzo or draw

71%

San Lorenzo or Lanus

72%

Draw or Lanus

57%

Winning margin

San Lorenzo wins by 2+

19%

Lanus wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

San Lorenzo 1+ goals

72%

San Lorenzo 2+ goals

37%

San Lorenzo 3+ goals

14%

Lanus 1+ goals

64%

Lanus 2+ goals

27%

Lanus 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

San Lorenzo (draw refunded)

59%

Lanus (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Lorenzo at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.98 · 123 matches

Lanus away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.45 · 122 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Lorenzo attack 1.13 + Lanus defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.29

Lanus attack 1.07 + San Lorenzo defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

San Lorenzo scores more

43%

level

28%

Lanus scores more

29%

San Lorenzo at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "San Lorenzo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff