Lanus 2–1 San Lorenzo: Result & Stats

Lanus

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

San Lorenzo

10/5/2025

Liga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 11Estadio Ciudad de Lanús - Néstor Díaz Pérez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 120+ matches

Lanus41%

×Draw30%

San Lorenzo29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LanusExpected goals in this matchSan Lorenzo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

0.93

Lanus

1.16

San Lorenzo

0.93

Lanus creates 25% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 120 away

1.34

creates per match

0.86

0.99

allows per match

0.98

creates per match

Lanus

1.34

San Lorenzo

0.86

allows per match

Lanus

0.99

San Lorenzo

0.98

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lanus+0.00on par

San Lorenzo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lanus ↓

San Lorenzo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–112%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Lanus or draw

71%

Lanus or San Lorenzo

70%

Draw or San Lorenzo

59%

Winning margin

Lanus wins by 2+

17%

San Lorenzo wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Lanus 1+ goals

69%

Lanus 2+ goals

32%

Lanus 3+ goals

11%

San Lorenzo 1+ goals

61%

San Lorenzo 2+ goals

24%

San Lorenzo 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Lanus (draw refunded)

58%

San Lorenzo (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lanus at home — creates 1.34, concedes 0.99 · 120 matches

San Lorenzo away — creates 0.86, concedes 0.98 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lanus attack 1.34 + San Lorenzo defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.16

San Lorenzo attack 0.86 + Lanus defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Lanus scores more

41%

level

30%

San Lorenzo scores more

29%

Lanus at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Lanus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff