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San Lorenzo vs Lanus — League #1032 2026

San Lorenzo
San Lorenzo
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Lanus
Lanus
1/27/2024League #1032League #1032 · 1st Phase - 1Estadio Pedro Bidegaín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

San Lorenzo12%
×Draw28%
Lanus60%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Lorenzo
0.45
Lanus
1.36

Lanus creates 202% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

creates per match

San Lorenzo
0.40
Lanus
1.33

allows per match

San Lorenzo
1.40
Lanus
0.50

finishing

San Lorenzo+0.00on par
Lanus+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

73%No
  • No73
  • Yes27

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Lorenzo ↓

Lanus →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–122%
0–215%
0–37%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–02%
2–12%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (22%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

San Lorenzo or draw
40%
San Lorenzo or Lanus
72%
Draw or Lanus
88%

Winning margin

San Lorenzo wins by 2+
2%
Lanus wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

San Lorenzo 1+ goals
36%
San Lorenzo 2+ goals
8%
San Lorenzo 3+ goals
1%
Lanus 1+ goals
74%
Lanus 2+ goals
39%
Lanus 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

San Lorenzo (draw refunded)
17%
Lanus (draw refunded)
83%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
17%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Lorenzo at home — creates 0.40, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

Lanus away — creates 1.33, concedes 0.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Lorenzo attack 0.40 + Lanus defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.45

Lanus attack 1.33 + San Lorenzo defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

San Lorenzo scores more
12%
level
28%
Lanus scores more
60%

Lanus at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Lanus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: San Lorenzo vs Lanus

Lanus beat San Lorenzo 2-0 in League #1032 on January 27, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Pedro Bidegaín in Capital Federal, Ciudad de Buenos Aires.