San Jose Earthquakes vs Real Salt Lake — Major League Soccer 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on xG from last 16+ matches
San Jose Earthquakes51%
Real Salt Lake27%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
San Jose Earthquakes creates 43% more chances
Season form · 24 home / 16 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over66
- Under34
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes65
- No35
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
San Jose Earthquakes ↓
Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
San Jose Earthquakes at home — creates 2.07, concedes 1.61 · 24 matches
Real Salt Lake away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.98 · 16 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
San Jose Earthquakes attack 2.07 + Real Salt Lake defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 2.02
Real Salt Lake attack 1.20 + San Jose Earthquakes defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.41
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 51%?"
San Jose Earthquakes at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 51% does not mean "San Jose Earthquakes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
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Orlando City SCSan Jose EarthquakesIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
San Jose Earthquakes host Real Salt Lake on Sunday, 6 October 2024 at 02:30. The match is part of the Major League Soccer 2018/2019 season.
Major League Soccer: San Jose Earthquakes 0–1 Real Salt Lake
Real Salt Lake beat San Jose Earthquakes 1-0 in Major League Soccer on October 6, 2024.
Goals: D. Luna (78').
Real Salt Lake controlled possession (56%) and registered 14 shots to 6.
The match was played at PayPal Park in San Jose, California.