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Real Salt Lake vs San Jose Earthquakes — Major League Soccer 2018

Real Salt Lake
Real Salt Lake
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
San Jose Earthquakes
San Jose Earthquakes
A. Pellegrino 33'
C. Espinoza 19'
8/25/2024Major League SoccerMajor League Soccer · Round 38America First Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

Real Salt Lake46%
×Draw24%
San Jose Earthquakes30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Salt Lake
1.67
San Jose Earthquakes
1.32

Real Salt Lake creates 27% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 19 away

creates per match

Real Salt Lake
1.70
San Jose Earthquakes
1.42

allows per match

Real Salt Lake
1.22
San Jose Earthquakes
1.65

finishing

Real Salt Lake+0.14scores more
San Jose Earthquakes+0.53scores more

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Salt Lake ↓

San Jose Earthquakes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Real Salt Lake or draw
70%
Real Salt Lake or San Jose Earthquakes
76%
Draw or San Jose Earthquakes
54%

Winning margin

Real Salt Lake wins by 2+
24%
San Jose Earthquakes wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Real Salt Lake 1+ goals
81%
Real Salt Lake 2+ goals
50%
Real Salt Lake 3+ goals
23%
San Jose Earthquakes 1+ goals
73%
San Jose Earthquakes 2+ goals
38%
San Jose Earthquakes 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Real Salt Lake (draw refunded)
60%
San Jose Earthquakes (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Salt Lake at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.22 · 19 matches

San Jose Earthquakes away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.65 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Salt Lake attack 1.70 + San Jose Earthquakes defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.67

San Jose Earthquakes attack 1.42 + Real Salt Lake defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Real Salt Lake scores more
46%
level
24%
San Jose Earthquakes scores more
30%

Real Salt Lake at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Real Salt Lake will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
C. EspinozaSan Jose EarthquakesSan Jose Earthquakes · M
8.6

Match Events

19'
C. Espinoza↳ J. Yueill
33'
A. Pellegrino
37'
Carlos Gruezo
42'
A. Julio← C. Arango
46'
N. Tsakiris← H. López
61'
N. Palacio← B. Ojeda
61'
L. Brook← M. Chang
66'
P. Marie← A. Pellegrino
72'
Michael Baldisimo← J. Yueill
74'
B. Michel← M. Crooks
74'
J. Brown← B. Hidalgo
81'
Lachlan Brook
83'
J. Skahan← C. Espinoza
83'
T. Beason← O. Bouda
84'
Daniel

Possession

63%Real

Shots

16Real

Pass accuracy

52%Real

Statistics

RealSan
Overview
63%Possession37%
16Total Shots13
0.62Expected Goals (xG)1.80
7Corners7
16Fouls14
Shots
16Total Shots13
4On Target6
10Off Target3
2Blocked4
7Inside Box6
9Outside Box7
Passing
63%Possession37%
539Total Passes317
472Accurate Passes257
88%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
2Saves4
0.33Goals Prevented0.33
Discipline
16Fouls14
1Yellow Cards2
2Offsides1

Major League Soccer: Real Salt Lake 0–2 San Jose Earthquakes

San Jose Earthquakes beat Real Salt Lake 2-0 in Major League Soccer on August 25, 2024.

Goals: C. Espinoza (19'), A. Pellegrino (33').

Real Salt Lake controlled possession (63%) and registered 16 shots to 13.

The match was played at America First Field in Sandy, Utah.