San Jose Earthquakes 2–1 Real Salt Lake

San Jose Earthquakes

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Real Salt Lake

Rodrigues 15'

J. Ebobisse 2'

C. Arango 44'

9/17/2023

Major League Soccer · Round 42PayPal Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

San Jose Earthquakes51%

×Draw22%

Real Salt Lake27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

San Jose EarthquakesExpected goals in this matchReal Salt Lake

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.02

1.41

San Jose Earthquakes

2.02

Real Salt Lake

1.41

San Jose Earthquakes creates 43% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 16 away

2.07

creates per match

1.20

1.61

allows per match

1.98

creates per match

San Jose Earthquakes

2.07

Real Salt Lake

1.20

allows per match

San Jose Earthquakes

1.61

Real Salt Lake

1.98

-0.19scores less than expected

finishing

-0.01on par

finishing

San Jose Earthquakes-0.19scores less

Real Salt Lake-0.01on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Jose Earthquakes ↓

Real Salt Lake →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

66%34%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

San Jose Earthquakes or draw

73%

San Jose Earthquakes or Real Salt Lake

78%

Draw or Real Salt Lake

49%

Winning margin

San Jose Earthquakes wins by 2+

30%

Real Salt Lake wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

San Jose Earthquakes 1+ goals

87%

San Jose Earthquakes 2+ goals

60%

San Jose Earthquakes 3+ goals

33%

Real Salt Lake 1+ goals

76%

Real Salt Lake 2+ goals

41%

Real Salt Lake 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

San Jose Earthquakes (draw refunded)

66%

Real Salt Lake (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Jose Earthquakes at home — creates 2.07, concedes 1.61 · 24 matches

Real Salt Lake away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.98 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Jose Earthquakes attack 2.07 + Real Salt Lake defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 2.02

Real Salt Lake attack 1.20 + San Jose Earthquakes defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

San Jose Earthquakes scores more

51%

level

22%

Real Salt Lake scores more

27%

San Jose Earthquakes at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "San Jose Earthquakes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

C. Espinoza

San Jose Earthquakes · M

8.2

Match Events

2'

J. Ebobisse↳ C. Espinoza

13'

Brayan Vera

15'

Rodrigues↳ C. Espinoza

44'

64'

64'

64'

69'

78'

89'

D. Kreilach← C. Arango

90+3'

A. Akinola← J. Ebobisse

90+3'

D. Munie← Jamiro Monteiro

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SanReal

Overview

45%Possession55%

16Total Shots19

1.86Expected Goals (xG)2.23

8Corners3

6Fouls15

Shots

16Total Shots19

6On Target7

7Off Target6

3Blocked6

10Inside Box14

6Outside Box5

Passing

45%Possession55%

413Total Passes516

344Accurate Passes451

83%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

6Saves4

Discipline

6Fouls15

0Yellow Cards2

1Offsides1

Match Recap: San Jose Earthquakes vs Real Salt Lake

San Jose Earthquakes beat Real Salt Lake 2-1 in Major League Soccer on September 17, 2023.

Goals: J. Ebobisse (2'), Rodrigues (15'), C. Arango (44').

Real Salt Lake controlled possession (55%) and registered 19 shots to 16.

The match was played at PayPal Park in San Jose, California.

San Jose Earthquakes vs Real Salt Lake — Major League Soccer 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: San Jose Earthquakes vs Real Salt Lake