San Antonio Bulo Bulo 2–1 Always Ready

San Antonio Bulo Bulo

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Always Ready

A. Vasquez 84'

A. Terrazas 43'

T. Andrade 63'

11/12/2025

League #964 · Round of 16Estadio Dr. Carlos Villegas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

San Antonio Bulo Bulo27%

×Draw29%

Always Ready44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

San Antonio Bulo BuloExpected goals in this matchAlways Ready

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.94

1.27

San Antonio Bulo Bulo

0.94

Always Ready

1.27

Always Ready creates 35% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

0.67

creates per match

1.20

1.33

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

San Antonio Bulo Bulo

0.67

Always Ready

1.20

allows per match

San Antonio Bulo Bulo

1.33

Always Ready

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

San Antonio Bulo Bulo+0.00on par

Always Ready+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Antonio Bulo Bulo ↓

Always Ready →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–114%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

San Antonio Bulo Bulo or draw

56%

San Antonio Bulo Bulo or Always Ready

71%

Draw or Always Ready

73%

Winning margin

San Antonio Bulo Bulo wins by 2+

10%

Always Ready wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

San Antonio Bulo Bulo 1+ goals

61%

San Antonio Bulo Bulo 2+ goals

24%

San Antonio Bulo Bulo 3+ goals

7%

Always Ready 1+ goals

72%

Always Ready 2+ goals

36%

Always Ready 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

San Antonio Bulo Bulo (draw refunded)

38%

Always Ready (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Antonio Bulo Bulo at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Always Ready away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Antonio Bulo Bulo attack 0.67 + Always Ready defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.94

Always Ready attack 1.20 + San Antonio Bulo Bulo defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

San Antonio Bulo Bulo scores more

27%

level

29%

Always Ready scores more

44%

Always Ready at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Always Ready will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

43'

A. Terrazas↳ R. Lopez

46'

R. Ferrufino← C. M. Collazo Martinez

63'

T. Andrade↳ E. Triverio

64'

E. Triverio

66'

F. Saucedo

70'

C. Valencia← H. Rodriguez

71'

A. Avalos← R. Lopez

80'

Z. La Fuente← C. Rodriguez

84'

A. Vasquez↳ K. Merida

87'

M. Alcocer← K. Romay

89'

M. De Lima← K. Merida

89'

L. Yanarico← A. Vasquez

90+1'

J. Herrera

90+5'

J. Montenegro← J. Herrera

San

Always

1

14

22

21

27

▼

Romay

18

▼

Rodriguez

23

⚽

Andrade

20

Saucedo

33

▼

Martinez

32

Galvez

29

A

21

34

3

5

22

28

A

▼

Lopez

7

▼

Herrera

24

▼

Rodriguez

13

A

▼

Merida

10

⚽

Terrazas

9

⚽

▼

Vasquez

Manager: Diomedes Pena Zuniga

70'▲C. Valencia←▼H. Rodriguez

71'▲A. Avalos←▼R. Lopez

89'▲M. De Lima←▼K. Merida

89'▲L. Yanarico←▼A. Vasquez

90+5'▲J. Montenegro←▼J. Herrera

San Antonio Bulo Bulo substitutes

91Lima27Valencia15Villarroel14Yanarico69Montenegro29Yucra11Alonso48Arandia30Montenegro17Avalos71Zambrano

Manager: Julio Baldivieso

46'▲R. Ferrufino←▼C. M. Collazo Martinez

80'▲Z. La Fuente←▼C. Rodriguez

87'▲M. Alcocer←▼K. Romay

Always Ready substitutes

38Cuestas99Rodriguez42Espejo49Fuente37Pernicone43Mamani35Lorono15Alcocer9Ferrufino