San Antonio Bulo Bulo 3–3 Always Ready

San Antonio Bulo Bulo

FT

3 – 3

HT: 2 – 0

Always Ready

L. Montenegro 88'

L. Jaldín 45+1'

A. Fernández 37'

J. Martínes 90+7'

R. Matheus 90+3'

J. Briceño 46'

9/18/2024

Primera División · Clausura - 9Estadio Dr. Carlos Villegas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

San Antonio Bulo Bulo43%

×Draw23%

Always Ready34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

San Antonio Bulo BuloExpected goals in this matchAlways Ready

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.53

San Antonio Bulo Bulo

1.73

Always Ready

1.53

San Antonio Bulo Bulo creates 13% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 124 away

1.96

creates per match

1.48

1.58

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

San Antonio Bulo Bulo

1.96

Always Ready

1.48

allows per match

San Antonio Bulo Bulo

1.58

Always Ready

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

San Antonio Bulo Bulo+0.00on par

Always Ready+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Antonio Bulo Bulo ↓

Always Ready →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

San Antonio Bulo Bulo or draw

66%

San Antonio Bulo Bulo or Always Ready

77%

Draw or Always Ready

57%

Winning margin

San Antonio Bulo Bulo wins by 2+

22%

Always Ready wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

San Antonio Bulo Bulo 1+ goals

82%

San Antonio Bulo Bulo 2+ goals

52%

San Antonio Bulo Bulo 3+ goals

25%

Always Ready 1+ goals

78%

Always Ready 2+ goals

45%

Always Ready 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

San Antonio Bulo Bulo (draw refunded)

55%

Always Ready (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Antonio Bulo Bulo at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.58 · 45 matches

Always Ready away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.50 · 124 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Antonio Bulo Bulo attack 1.96 + Always Ready defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.73

Always Ready attack 1.48 + San Antonio Bulo Bulo defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

San Antonio Bulo Bulo scores more

43%

level

23%

Always Ready scores more

34%

San Antonio Bulo Bulo at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "San Antonio Bulo Bulo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

R. Matheus

Always Ready · M

8.6

Match Events

14'

K. Stivince← M. Salazar

24'

Gustavo OlguínCard upgrade

25'

Gustavo Olguín

31'

L. Montenegro← M. De Lima

37'

A. Fernández

45+1'

L. Jaldín↳ Daniel Passira

46'

Z. La Fuente← K. Stivince

46'

C. Cañozales← D. Medina

46'

J. Briceño↳ J. Martínes

59'

Huberth SánchezCard upgrade

61'

Adriel Fernandez

62'

I. Huayhuata← A. Fernández

62'

Arthur← L. Jaldín

66'

Edwin Rivera

68'

Pablo Vaca

69'

M. Galindo← H. Cuellar

73'

Fernando Castellón

77'

C. Justiniano← M. Castellón

79'

86'

88'

90+5'

90+9'

90+2'

90+3'

R. Matheus↳ M. Galindo

90+7'

J. Martínes↳ R. Matheus

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SanAlways

Overview

34%Possession66%

11Total Shots15

0Corners4

18Fouls13

Shots

11Total Shots15

5On Target6

4Off Target7

2Blocked2

6Inside Box8

5Outside Box7

Passing

34%Possession66%

202Total Passes382

135Accurate Passes322

67%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

18Fouls13

4Yellow Cards4

1Red Cards0

1Offsides3