Samtredia 6–0 Merani Tbilisi: Result & Stats

Samtredia

FT

6 – 0

HT: 4 – 0

Merani Tbilisi

6/26/2022

Erovnuli Liga 2 · Round 17Stadioni Erosi Manjgaladze

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Samtredia53%

×Draw23%

Merani Tbilisi24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SamtrediaExpected goals in this matchMerani Tbilisi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.87

1.19

Samtredia

1.87

Merani Tbilisi

1.19

Samtredia creates 57% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 64 away

1.71

creates per match

1.39

0.98

allows per match

2.03

creates per match

Samtredia

1.71

Merani Tbilisi

1.39

allows per match

Samtredia

0.98

Merani Tbilisi

2.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Samtredia+0.00on par

Merani Tbilisi+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Samtredia ↓

Merani Tbilisi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Samtredia or draw

76%

Samtredia or Merani Tbilisi

77%

Draw or Merani Tbilisi

47%

Winning margin

Samtredia wins by 2+

30%

Merani Tbilisi wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Samtredia 1+ goals

85%

Samtredia 2+ goals

56%

Samtredia 3+ goals

29%

Merani Tbilisi 1+ goals

70%

Merani Tbilisi 2+ goals

33%

Merani Tbilisi 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Samtredia (draw refunded)

69%

Merani Tbilisi (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Samtredia at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.98 · 56 matches

Merani Tbilisi away — creates 1.39, concedes 2.03 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Samtredia attack 1.71 + Merani Tbilisi defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.87

Merani Tbilisi attack 1.39 + Samtredia defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Samtredia scores more

53%

level

23%

Merani Tbilisi scores more

24%

Samtredia at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Samtredia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff