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Merani Tbilisi vs Samtredia — Erovnuli Liga 2 2019

Merani Tbilisi
Merani Tbilisi
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Samtredia
Samtredia
4/21/2022Erovnuli Liga 2Erovnuli Liga 2 · Round 8Stadioni Spaeri

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Merani Tbilisi42%
×Draw25%
Samtredia33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Merani Tbilisi
1.54
Samtredia
1.34

Merani Tbilisi creates 15% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 52 away

creates per match

Merani Tbilisi
1.74
Samtredia
1.06

allows per match

Merani Tbilisi
1.62
Samtredia
1.35

finishing

Merani Tbilisi+0.00on par
Samtredia+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Merani Tbilisi ↓

Samtredia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Merani Tbilisi or draw
67%
Merani Tbilisi or Samtredia
75%
Draw or Samtredia
58%

Winning margin

Merani Tbilisi wins by 2+
21%
Samtredia wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Merani Tbilisi 1+ goals
79%
Merani Tbilisi 2+ goals
45%
Merani Tbilisi 3+ goals
20%
Samtredia 1+ goals
74%
Samtredia 2+ goals
39%
Samtredia 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Merani Tbilisi (draw refunded)
56%
Samtredia (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Merani Tbilisi at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.62 · 65 matches

Samtredia away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.35 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Merani Tbilisi attack 1.74 + Samtredia defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.54

Samtredia attack 1.06 + Merani Tbilisi defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Merani Tbilisi scores more
42%
level
25%
Samtredia scores more
33%

Merani Tbilisi at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Merani Tbilisi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Merani Tbilisi vs Samtredia

Merani Tbilisi beat Samtredia 1-0 in Erovnuli Liga 2 on April 21, 2022.

The match was played at Stadioni Spaeri in Tbilisi.