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Samtredia vs Merani Tbilisi — Erovnuli Liga 2019

Samtredia
Samtredia
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Merani Tbilisi
Merani Tbilisi
11/4/2020Erovnuli LigaErovnuli Liga · Round 8Stadioni Erosi Manjgaladze

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Samtredia50%
×Draw28%
Merani Tbilisi22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Samtredia
1.33
Merani Tbilisi
0.78

Samtredia creates 71% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 9 away

creates per match

Samtredia
1.09
Merani Tbilisi
0.11

allows per match

Samtredia
1.44
Merani Tbilisi
1.56

finishing

Samtredia+0.00on par
Merani Tbilisi+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Samtredia ↓

Merani Tbilisi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Samtredia or draw
78%
Samtredia or Merani Tbilisi
72%
Draw or Merani Tbilisi
50%

Winning margin

Samtredia wins by 2+
24%
Merani Tbilisi wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Samtredia 1+ goals
74%
Samtredia 2+ goals
38%
Samtredia 3+ goals
15%
Merani Tbilisi 1+ goals
54%
Merani Tbilisi 2+ goals
18%
Merani Tbilisi 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Samtredia (draw refunded)
69%
Merani Tbilisi (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Samtredia at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.44 · 66 matches

Merani Tbilisi away — creates 0.11, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Samtredia attack 1.09 + Merani Tbilisi defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.33

Merani Tbilisi attack 0.11 + Samtredia defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Samtredia scores more
50%
level
28%
Merani Tbilisi scores more
22%

Samtredia at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Samtredia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Erovnuli Liga: Samtredia 2–0 Merani Tbilisi

Samtredia beat Merani Tbilisi 2-0 in Erovnuli Liga on November 4, 2020.

The match was played at Stadioni Erosi Manjgaladze in Samtredia.