Sampdoria 3–3 Palermo: Result & Stats | Serie B

Sampdoria

FT

3 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Palermo

L. Cherubini 68'

N. Pierini 53'

T. Begic 50'

P. Ceccaroni 90'

T. Augello 78'

O. Abildgaard 45' (OG)

2/10/2026

Serie B · Round 24Stadio Luigi Ferraris

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Sampdoria38%

×Draw27%

Palermo35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SampdoriaExpected goals in this matchPalermo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.23

Sampdoria

1.28

Palermo

1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 15 away

1.13

creates per match

1.45

1.02

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Sampdoria

1.13

Palermo

1.45

allows per match

Sampdoria

1.02

Palermo

1.43

+0.09on par

finishing

-0.25scores less than expected

finishing

Sampdoria+0.09on par

Palermo-0.25scores less

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sampdoria ↓

Palermo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Sampdoria or draw

65%

Sampdoria or Palermo

73%

Draw or Palermo

62%

Winning margin

Sampdoria wins by 2+

17%

Palermo wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Sampdoria 1+ goals

72%

Sampdoria 2+ goals

37%

Sampdoria 3+ goals

14%

Palermo 1+ goals

71%

Palermo 2+ goals

35%

Palermo 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Sampdoria (draw refunded)

52%

Palermo (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sampdoria at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.02 · 9 matches

Palermo away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.43 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sampdoria attack 1.13 + Palermo defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.28

Palermo attack 1.45 + Sampdoria defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Sampdoria scores more

38%

level

27%

Palermo scores more

35%

Sampdoria at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Sampdoria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

L. Cherubini

Sampdoria · F

7.7

Match Events

1'

Mattia Bani

36'

Niccolò PierozziGoal cancelled

40'

Claudio Gomes

45'

O. AbildgaardOwn goal

46'

M. Ricci← F. Conti

46'

J. Segre← C. Gomes

50'

T. Begic↳ A. Di Pardo

53'

N. Pierini↳ M. Brunori

59'

Tjaš Begić

63'

L. Cherubini← T. Begic

63'

E. Soleri← M. Brunori

63'

P. Ceccaroni← P. Peda

66'

J. Le Douaron← G. Magnani

68'

L. Cherubini↳ D. Hadzikadunic

69'

Luigi Cherubini

71'

Filippo Ranocchia

75'

A. Barak← L. Henderson

77'

Jérémy Le Douaron

78'

T. Augello↳ D. Johnsen

80'

Antonín Barák

84'

E. Gyasi← F. Ranocchia

84'

A. Vasic← D. Johnsen

90+2'

A. Riccio← N. Pierini

90'

P. Ceccaroni↳ A. Palumbo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SampdoriaPalermo

Overview

47%Possession53%

13Total Shots15

1.55Expected Goals (xG)1.33

3Corners4

12Fouls21

Shots

13Total Shots15

5On Target3

6Off Target8

2Blocked4

7Inside Box11

6Outside Box4

Passing

47%Possession53%

372Total Passes408

297Accurate Passes324

80%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

-1.52Goals Prevented-1.52

Discipline

12Fouls21

3Yellow Cards4

5Offsides1

Serie B: Sampdoria 3–3 Palermo

Sampdoria and Palermo drew 3-3 in Serie B on February 10, 2026.

Goals: O. Abildgaard (45' o.g.), T. Begic (50'), N. Pierini (53'), L. Cherubini (68'), T. Augello (78'), P. Ceccaroni (90').

Palermo controlled possession (53%) and registered 15 shots to 13.

The match was played at Stadio Luigi Ferraris in Genoa.

Sampdoria vs Palermo — Serie B 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie B: Sampdoria 3–3 Palermo