Sampdoria 1–1 Palermo: Result & Stats | Serie B

Sampdoria

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Palermo

M. Coda 1'

J. Pohjanpalo 40'

3/8/2025

Serie B · Round 29Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Sampdoria37%

×Draw28%

Palermo35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SampdoriaExpected goals in this matchPalermo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.18

Sampdoria

1.21

Palermo

1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 58 home / 97 away

1.07

creates per match

1.32

1.03

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Sampdoria

1.07

Palermo

1.32

allows per match

Sampdoria

1.03

Palermo

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sampdoria+0.00on par

Palermo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sampdoria ↓

Palermo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Sampdoria or draw

65%

Sampdoria or Palermo

72%

Draw or Palermo

63%

Winning margin

Sampdoria wins by 2+

16%

Palermo wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Sampdoria 1+ goals

70%

Sampdoria 2+ goals

34%

Sampdoria 3+ goals

12%

Palermo 1+ goals

69%

Palermo 2+ goals

33%

Palermo 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Sampdoria (draw refunded)

51%

Palermo (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sampdoria at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.03 · 58 matches

Palermo away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.35 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sampdoria attack 1.07 + Palermo defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.21

Palermo attack 1.32 + Sampdoria defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Sampdoria scores more

37%

level

28%

Palermo scores more

35%

Sampdoria at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Sampdoria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

F. Ranocchia

Palermo · M

7.6

Match Events

1'

M. Coda

22'

Fabio Depaoli

40'

J. Pohjanpalo

58'

L. Venuti← P. Beruatto

58'

G. Sibilli← M. Coda

58'

E. Akinsanmiro← R. Oudin

61'

Ebenezer Akinsanmiro

68'

B. Bereszyński← F. Depaoli

73'

J. Le Douaron← V. Verre

75'

Niccolò Pierozzi

79'

J. Segre← N. Pierozzi

84'

A. Riccio← D. Veroli

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SampdoriaPalermo

Overview

44%Possession56%

14Total Shots23

6Corners8

15Fouls7

Shots

14Total Shots23

5On Target4

4Off Target10

5Blocked9

9Inside Box17

5Outside Box6

Passing

44%Possession56%

306Total Passes402

237Accurate Passes323

77%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

15Fouls7

1Yellow Cards1

1Red Cards0

3Offsides0