Palermo 1–1 Sampdoria: Result & Stats | Serie B

Palermo

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Sampdoria

F. Di Francesco 45+3'

G. Tutino 38'

11/24/2024

Serie B · Round 14Stadio Renzo Barbera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Palermo50%

×Draw25%

Sampdoria25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PalermoExpected goals in this matchSampdoria

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.04

Palermo

1.58

Sampdoria

1.04

Palermo creates 52% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 58 away

1.62

creates per match

1.14

0.95

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Palermo

1.62

Sampdoria

1.14

allows per match

Palermo

0.95

Sampdoria

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Palermo+0.00on par

Sampdoria+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Palermo ↓

Sampdoria →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Palermo or draw

75%

Palermo or Sampdoria

75%

Draw or Sampdoria

50%

Winning margin

Palermo wins by 2+

26%

Sampdoria wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Palermo 1+ goals

79%

Palermo 2+ goals

47%

Palermo 3+ goals

21%

Sampdoria 1+ goals

65%

Sampdoria 2+ goals

28%

Sampdoria 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Palermo (draw refunded)

67%

Sampdoria (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Palermo at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.95 · 97 matches

Sampdoria away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.53 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Palermo attack 1.62 + Sampdoria defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.58

Sampdoria attack 1.14 + Palermo defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Palermo scores more

50%

level

25%

Sampdoria scores more

25%

Palermo at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Palermo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

F. Ranocchia

Palermo · M

8.5

Match Events

3'

A. Ferrari← S. Romagnoli

38'

G. Tutino

45+3'

F. Di Francesco↳ V. Verre

64'

Alex FerrariRed card cancelled

65'

N. Sekulov← Estanis Pedrola

66'

L. Benedetti← E. Akinsanmiro

69'

A. Vasić← V. Verre

69'

J. Le Douaron← T. Henry

78'

F. Di Mariano← F. Di Francesco

78'

S. Appuah← R. Insigne

79'

Lorenzo Venuti

83'

F. Depaoli← L. Venuti

84'

S. Leonardi← A. La Gumina

87'

M. Brunori← J. Segre

90+2'

Alex Ferrari

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PalermoSampdoria

Overview

52%Possession48%

26Total Shots8

9Corners2

14Fouls18

Shots

26Total Shots8

8On Target2

14Off Target4

4Blocked2

13Inside Box5

13Outside Box3

Passing

52%Possession48%

345Total Passes334

275Accurate Passes263

80%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

1Saves7

Discipline

14Fouls18

0Yellow Cards2

1Offsides3