Sampdoria 1–0 Juve Stabia: Result & Stats | Serie B

Sampdoria

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Juve Stabia

M. Coda 58' (pen)

11/24/2025

Serie B · Round 13Stadio Luigi Ferraris

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Sampdoria44%

×Draw28%

Juve Stabia28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SampdoriaExpected goals in this matchJuve Stabia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

0.98

Sampdoria

1.30

Juve Stabia

0.98

Sampdoria creates 33% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 60 away

1.07

creates per match

0.92

1.03

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Sampdoria

1.07

Juve Stabia

0.92

allows per match

Sampdoria

1.03

Juve Stabia

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sampdoria+0.00on par

Juve Stabia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sampdoria ↓

Juve Stabia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Sampdoria or draw

72%

Sampdoria or Juve Stabia

72%

Draw or Juve Stabia

56%

Winning margin

Sampdoria wins by 2+

20%

Juve Stabia wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Sampdoria 1+ goals

73%

Sampdoria 2+ goals

37%

Sampdoria 3+ goals

14%

Juve Stabia 1+ goals

62%

Juve Stabia 2+ goals

26%

Juve Stabia 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Sampdoria (draw refunded)

61%

Juve Stabia (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sampdoria at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.03 · 58 matches

Juve Stabia away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.53 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sampdoria attack 1.07 + Juve Stabia defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.30

Juve Stabia attack 0.92 + Sampdoria defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Sampdoria scores more

44%

level

28%

Juve Stabia scores more

28%

Sampdoria at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Sampdoria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

D. Hadzikadunic

Sampdoria · D

8.2

Match Events

38'

Marco Ruggero

56'

Stipe VulikićPenalty confirmed

56'

Marco Ruggero

56'

Marco Ruggero

58'

Fabio Depaoli

58'

Alessandro Gabrielloni

58'

M. CodaPenalty

63'

S. Pafundi← F. Depaoli

63'

C. Pierobon← A. Gabrielloni

63'

F. Maistro← G. Leone

74'

N. Ioannou← S. Giordano

74'

A. Barak← F. Conti

80'

K. Piscopo← A. Cacciamani

86'

J. Ferri← A. Bellemo

86'

T. Casalino← L. Benedetti

88'

Andrea Giorgini

90+8'

Giacomo De Pieri

90+1'

M. Baldi← L. Carissoni

90+1'

G. De Pieri← N. Mosti

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SampdoriaJuve

Overview

57%Possession43%

16Total Shots10

1.81Expected Goals (xG)0.78

4Corners4

14Fouls18

Shots

16Total Shots10

2On Target3

8Off Target3

6Blocked4

10Inside Box8

6Outside Box2

Passing

57%Possession43%

425Total Passes329

355Accurate Passes258

84%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

14Fouls18

1Yellow Cards5

0Red Cards1

1Offsides3

Serie B: Sampdoria 1–0 Juve Stabia

Sampdoria beat Juve Stabia 1-0 in Serie B on November 24, 2025.

Goals: M. Coda (58' pen).

Sampdoria controlled possession (57%) and registered 16 shots to 10.

The match was played at Stadio Luigi Ferraris in Genoa.

Sampdoria vs Juve Stabia — Serie B 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie B: Sampdoria 1–0 Juve Stabia