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Juve Stabia vs Sampdoria — Serie B 2018

Juve Stabia
Juve Stabia
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Sampdoria
Sampdoria
O. Correia 89'
A. Di Pardo 90'
3/4/2026Serie BSerie B · Round 28Stadio Romeo Menti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Juve Stabia48%
×Draw28%
Sampdoria24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Juve Stabia
1.38
Sampdoria
0.89

Juve Stabia creates 55% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 9 away

creates per match

Juve Stabia
1.46
Sampdoria
0.89

allows per match

Juve Stabia
0.88
Sampdoria
1.30

finishing

Juve Stabia+0.00on par
Sampdoria-0.11scores less

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juve Stabia ↓

Sampdoria →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Juve Stabia or draw
76%
Juve Stabia or Sampdoria
72%
Draw or Sampdoria
52%

Winning margin

Juve Stabia wins by 2+
23%
Sampdoria wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Juve Stabia 1+ goals
75%
Juve Stabia 2+ goals
40%
Juve Stabia 3+ goals
16%
Sampdoria 1+ goals
59%
Sampdoria 2+ goals
22%
Sampdoria 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Juve Stabia (draw refunded)
67%
Sampdoria (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juve Stabia at home — creates 1.46, concedes 0.88 · 13 matches

Sampdoria away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.30 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juve Stabia attack 1.46 + Sampdoria defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.38

Sampdoria attack 0.89 + Juve Stabia defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Juve Stabia scores more
48%
level
28%
Sampdoria scores more
24%

Juve Stabia at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Juve Stabia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
M. CicconiSampdoriaSampdoria · M
7.5

Match Events

58'
Tommaso Martinelli
59'
F. Maistro← N. Mosti
59'
C. Pierobon← R. Burnete
64'
M. Cicconi← S. Giordano
76'
M. Ricci← S. Esposito
78'
A. Okoro← A. Gabrielloni
89'
O. Correia↳ L. Carissoni
90'
A. Barak← F. Conti
90'
E. Soleri← M. Viti
90'
S. Pafundi← L. Cherubini
90'
A. Di Pardo↳ M. Cicconi

Possession

63%Juve

Shots

16Juve

Pass accuracy

52%Juve

Statistics

JuveSampdoria
Overview
63%Possession37%
16Total Shots4
0.90Expected Goals (xG)0.36
9Corners3
13Fouls9
Shots
16Total Shots4
5On Target1
6Off Target3
5Blocked0
10Inside Box3
6Outside Box1
Passing
63%Possession37%
519Total Passes311
445Accurate Passes246
86%Pass Accuracy79%
Goalkeeping
0Saves3
0.02Goals Prevented0.02
Discipline
13Fouls9
0Yellow Cards1
2Offsides1

Match Recap: Juve Stabia vs Sampdoria

Juve Stabia and Sampdoria drew 1-1 in Serie B on March 4, 2026.

Goals: O. Correia (89'), A. Di Pardo (90').

Juve Stabia controlled possession (63%) and registered 16 shots to 4.

The match was played at Stadio Romeo Menti in Castellammare di Stabia.