Sampaio Correa 1–1 Nautico Recife: Result & Stats

Sampaio Correa

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Nautico Recife

Cavi 14'

Luiz Paulo 2'

7/27/2024

Serie C · Round 15Estádio Governador João Castelo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Sampaio Correa43%

×Draw28%

Nautico Recife29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sampaio CorreaExpected goals in this matchNautico Recife

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.04

Sampaio Correa

1.33

Nautico Recife

1.04

Sampaio Correa creates 28% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 51 away

1.36

creates per match

1.12

0.95

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Sampaio Correa

1.36

Nautico Recife

1.12

allows per match

Sampaio Correa

0.95

Nautico Recife

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sampaio Correa+0.00on par

Nautico Recife+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sampaio Correa ↓

Nautico Recife →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Sampaio Correa or draw

71%

Sampaio Correa or Nautico Recife

72%

Draw or Nautico Recife

57%

Winning margin

Sampaio Correa wins by 2+

20%

Nautico Recife wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Sampaio Correa 1+ goals

74%

Sampaio Correa 2+ goals

38%

Sampaio Correa 3+ goals

15%

Nautico Recife 1+ goals

65%

Nautico Recife 2+ goals

28%

Nautico Recife 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Sampaio Correa (draw refunded)

60%

Nautico Recife (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sampaio Correa at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.95 · 22 matches

Nautico Recife away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.29 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sampaio Correa attack 1.36 + Nautico Recife defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.33

Nautico Recife attack 1.12 + Sampaio Correa defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Sampaio Correa scores more

43%

level

28%

Nautico Recife scores more

29%

Sampaio Correa at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Sampaio Correa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'

Luiz Paulo

14'

Cavi

46'

Cléo Silva← Felipe Ferreira

46'

Wendel Lessa← Leandro Kauã

48'

Mateus Ludke

58'

Gabriel Silva← Guilherme Escuro

58'

Rafael Luiz← Thallyson

64'

Diego Matos← Luiz Paulo

70'

Renan Gorne← João Felipe

70'

Victor Daniel← Nadson

73'

Arnaldo← Mateus Ludke

76'

Deivity

79'

Jhonata Varela← Ferreira

81'

Kauan← Marco Antônio

Sampaio3-4-3

Nautico4-3-3

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Zé Augusto

58'▲Gabriel Silva←▼Guilherme Escuro

58'▲Rafael Luiz←▼Thallyson

70'▲Renan Gorne←▼João Felipe

70'▲Victor Daniel←▼Nadson

79'▲Jhonata Varela←▼Ferreira

Sampaio Correa substitutes

SilvaLuizGorneDanielVarelaAlanCebolinhaDimasFranklinGuilhermePiauí

Manager: Bruno Pivetti

46'▲Cléo Silva←▼Felipe Ferreira

46'▲Wendel Lessa←▼Leandro Kauã

64'▲Diego Matos←▼Luiz Paulo

73'▲Arnaldo←▼Mateus Ludke

81'▲Kauan←▼Marco Antônio

Nautico Recife substitutes

SilvaLessaMatosArnaldoKauanRomárioAndreyJoécioKayonAntônio

Match Recap: Sampaio Correa vs Nautico Recife

Sampaio Correa and Nautico Recife drew 1-1 in Serie C on July 27, 2024.

Goals: Luiz Paulo (2'), Cavi (14').

The match was played at Estádio Governador João Castelo in São Luís, Maranhão.

Sampaio Correa vs Nautico Recife — Serie C 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Sampaio Correa vs Nautico Recife