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Sampaio Correa vs Nautico Recife — Serie B 2026

Sampaio Correa
Sampaio Correa
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Nautico Recife
Nautico Recife
Gabriel Poveda 45+1'
Pimentinha 39'
6/10/2022Serie BSerie B · Round 12Estádio Governador João Castelo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Sampaio Correa53%
×Draw26%
Nautico Recife21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sampaio Correa
1.49
Nautico Recife
0.82

Sampaio Correa creates 82% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 77 away

creates per match

Sampaio Correa
1.41
Nautico Recife
0.74

allows per match

Sampaio Correa
0.91
Nautico Recife
1.57

finishing

Sampaio Correa+0.00on par
Nautico Recife+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sampaio Correa ↓

Nautico Recife →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Sampaio Correa or draw
79%
Sampaio Correa or Nautico Recife
74%
Draw or Nautico Recife
47%

Winning margin

Sampaio Correa wins by 2+
27%
Nautico Recife wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Sampaio Correa 1+ goals
77%
Sampaio Correa 2+ goals
44%
Sampaio Correa 3+ goals
19%
Nautico Recife 1+ goals
56%
Nautico Recife 2+ goals
20%
Nautico Recife 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Sampaio Correa (draw refunded)
72%
Nautico Recife (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sampaio Correa at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.91 · 88 matches

Nautico Recife away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.57 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sampaio Correa attack 1.41 + Nautico Recife defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.49

Nautico Recife attack 0.74 + Sampaio Correa defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Sampaio Correa scores more
53%
level
26%
Nautico Recife scores more
21%

Sampaio Correa at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Sampaio Correa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
PimentinhaSampaio CorreaSampaio Correa · M
8.5

Match Events

39'
Pimentinha↳ Rafael Vila
45+1'
Gabriel Poveda↳ Pimentinha
46'
Robinho← Junior Tavares
46'
Ralph← Nascimento
63'
Julio← Amarildo
63'
Léo Passos← Rhaldney
66'
Rafael Vila
71'
Renatinho← Rafael Vila
72'
Rafael Costa← Gabriel Poveda
75'
Luiz Daniel
78'
Pedro Vitor
83'
Eron← Pimentinha
87'
Mauricio← Matheusinho
87'
Lucas Araújo← Ferreira
88'
Ralph
89'
Renatinho
90+7'
Rafael CostaPenalty cancelled
90+9'
Wellington
90+8'
WellingtonCard upgrade

Possession

44%Sampaio

Shots

20Sampaio

Pass accuracy

49%Sampaio

Statistics

SampaioNautico
Overview
44%Possession56%
20Total Shots10
3Corners4
21Fouls20
Shots
20Total Shots10
7On Target2
10Off Target7
3Blocked1
14Inside Box4
6Outside Box6
Passing
44%Possession56%
316Total Passes403
255Accurate Passes334
81%Pass Accuracy83%
Goalkeeping
2Saves5
Discipline
21Fouls20
3Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards1
3Offsides1

Match Recap: Sampaio Correa vs Nautico Recife

Sampaio Correa beat Nautico Recife 2-0 in Serie B on June 10, 2022.

Goals: Pimentinha (39'), Gabriel Poveda (45+1').

Nautico Recife controlled possession (56%) and registered 10 shots to 20.

The match was played at Estádio Governador João Castelo in São Luís, Maranhão.