Nautico Recife 1–3 Sampaio Correa: Result & Stats

Nautico Recife

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Sampaio Correa

Julio 6'

Nadson 90+4'

Rafael Costa 87'

Gabriel Poveda 36'

9/23/2022

Serie B · Round 31Estádio Eládio de Barros Carvalho

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Nautico Recife44%

×Draw28%

Sampaio Correa28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nautico RecifeExpected goals in this matchSampaio Correa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

0.97

Nautico Recife

1.31

Sampaio Correa

0.97

Nautico Recife creates 35% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 86 away

1.32

creates per match

0.74

1.20

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Nautico Recife

1.32

Sampaio Correa

0.74

allows per match

Nautico Recife

1.20

Sampaio Correa

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nautico Recife+0.00on par

Sampaio Correa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nautico Recife ↓

Sampaio Correa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Nautico Recife or draw

72%

Nautico Recife or Sampaio Correa

72%

Draw or Sampaio Correa

56%

Winning margin

Nautico Recife wins by 2+

20%

Sampaio Correa wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Nautico Recife 1+ goals

73%

Nautico Recife 2+ goals

38%

Nautico Recife 3+ goals

14%

Sampaio Correa 1+ goals

62%

Sampaio Correa 2+ goals

25%

Sampaio Correa 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Nautico Recife (draw refunded)

62%

Sampaio Correa (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nautico Recife at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.20 · 74 matches

Sampaio Correa away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.30 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nautico Recife attack 1.32 + Sampaio Correa defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.31

Sampaio Correa attack 0.74 + Nautico Recife defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Nautico Recife scores more

44%

level

28%

Sampaio Correa scores more

28%

Nautico Recife at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Nautico Recife will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

Ygor Catatau

Sampaio Correa · M

7.9

Match Events

6'

Julio↳ João Lucas

8'

Arthur Henrique

23'

Paulo Sérgio

36'

Gabriel Poveda↳ Ygor Catatau

43'

João Lucas

46'

Pedro Vitor← Éverton Brito

46'

Luís Felipe← Thomaz

56'

Pimentinha← Rafael Vila

68'

Jobson← R. Franco

68'

Kieza← Julio

69'

Lucas Araújo← Léo Tocantins

70'

Ferreira← Eloir

81'

Jobson

81'

Nadson← Mauricio

81'

Rafael Costa← Gabriel Poveda

85'

João Paulo

87'

Rafael Costa↳ Ygor Catatau

88'

Luis Phelipe← Souza

90+5'

Nadson Mesquita

90+4'

Nadson↳ Pimentinha

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NauticoSampaio

Overview

58%Possession42%

9Total Shots17

4Corners3

20Fouls7

Shots

9Total Shots17

2On Target6

6Off Target8

1Blocked3

6Inside Box8

3Outside Box9

Passing

58%Possession42%

448Total Passes318

364Accurate Passes230

81%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

20Fouls7

4Yellow Cards2

0Offsides1