Sampaio Correa 0–2 Criciuma: Result & Stats

Sampaio Correa

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Criciuma

Tiago Marques 86'

Felipe Vizeu 23'

7/1/2023

Serie B · Round 15Estádio Governador João Castelo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 87+ matches

Sampaio Correa45%

×Draw29%

Criciuma27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sampaio CorreaExpected goals in this matchCriciuma

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

0.91

Sampaio Correa

1.27

Criciuma

0.91

Sampaio Correa creates 40% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 87 away

1.41

creates per match

0.90

0.91

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Sampaio Correa

1.41

Criciuma

0.90

allows per match

Sampaio Correa

0.91

Criciuma

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sampaio Correa+0.00on par

Criciuma+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sampaio Correa ↓

Criciuma →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Sampaio Correa or draw

73%

Sampaio Correa or Criciuma

71%

Draw or Criciuma

55%

Winning margin

Sampaio Correa wins by 2+

20%

Criciuma wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Sampaio Correa 1+ goals

72%

Sampaio Correa 2+ goals

36%

Sampaio Correa 3+ goals

14%

Criciuma 1+ goals

60%

Criciuma 2+ goals

23%

Criciuma 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Sampaio Correa (draw refunded)

63%

Criciuma (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sampaio Correa at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.91 · 88 matches

Criciuma away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.14 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sampaio Correa attack 1.41 + Criciuma defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.27

Criciuma attack 0.90 + Sampaio Correa defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Sampaio Correa scores more

45%

level

29%

Criciuma scores more

27%

Sampaio Correa at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Sampaio Correa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25

Alisson

Criciuma · G

7.9

Match Events

23'

Felipe Vizeu↳ Claudinho

47'

Miqueias

62'

Eloir← Vitinho

62'

Rafael Vila← Neto Paraíba

69'

Matheus Martins← Vinícius Alves

72'

Jonathan← Claudinho

72'

Welinton Torrão← Felipe Vizeu

72'

Tiago Marques← Fabinho

79'

Luiz Otávio← Jhony Douglas

80'

Welinton

80'

Pará← Alyson Neves

85'

Luiz Otavio

85'

Ítalo Melo← Fellipe Mateus

86'

Tiago Marques↳ Miqueias

90+1'

Rômulo← Miqueias

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SampaioCriciuma

Overview

54%Possession46%

20Total Shots11

10Corners4

15Fouls20

Shots

20Total Shots11

4On Target4

9Off Target5

7Blocked2

7Inside Box8

13Outside Box3

Passing

54%Possession46%

469Total Passes425

412Accurate Passes344

88%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

15Fouls20

1Yellow Cards2

1Offsides1