Criciuma 3–0 Sampaio Correa: Result & Stats

Criciuma

FT

3 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Sampaio Correa

Claudinho 45+3'

Arilson 35'

Hygor 16'

10/28/2023

Serie B · Round 34Estádio Heriberto Hülse

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Criciuma52%

×Draw29%

Sampaio Correa19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CriciumaExpected goals in this matchSampaio Correa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

0.69

Criciuma

1.33

Sampaio Correa

0.69

Criciuma creates 93% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 86 away

1.37

creates per match

0.74

0.64

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Criciuma

1.37

Sampaio Correa

0.74

allows per match

Criciuma

0.64

Sampaio Correa

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Criciuma+0.00on par

Sampaio Correa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Criciuma ↓

Sampaio Correa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Criciuma or draw

81%

Criciuma or Sampaio Correa

71%

Draw or Sampaio Correa

48%

Winning margin

Criciuma wins by 2+

25%

Sampaio Correa wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Criciuma 1+ goals

74%

Criciuma 2+ goals

38%

Criciuma 3+ goals

15%

Sampaio Correa 1+ goals

50%

Sampaio Correa 2+ goals

15%

Sampaio Correa 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Criciuma (draw refunded)

73%

Sampaio Correa (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Criciuma at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.64 · 89 matches

Sampaio Correa away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.30 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Criciuma attack 1.37 + Sampaio Correa defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.33

Sampaio Correa attack 0.74 + Criciuma defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Criciuma scores more

52%

level

29%

Sampaio Correa scores more

19%

Criciuma at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Criciuma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

Gustavo

Criciuma · G

8.2

Match Events

16'

Hygor↳ Jonathan

18'

Barreto

28'

Matheus Mancini

31'

Ícaro

35'

Arilson↳ Éder

45+3'

Claudinho

46'

Thiaguinho← Ferreira

46'

Henrique← Riquelmo

53'

Thiago Braga← Luiz Daniel

61'

Alyson

67'

Marquinhos Gabriel← Claudinho

67'

Felipe Vizeu← Hygor

67'

Miqueias← Barreto

71'

Getterson← Vinícius Alves

71'

Eloir← Robinho

74'

Fabinho← Éder

80'

Cristovam← Jonathan

89'

Arilson

90+5'

Henrique

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CriciumaSampaio

Overview

53%Possession47%

10Total Shots14

2Corners7

19Fouls17

Shots

10Total Shots14

4On Target6

4Off Target4

2Blocked4

7Inside Box5

3Outside Box9

Passing

53%Possession47%

419Total Passes356

343Accurate Passes285

82%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

6Saves1

Discipline

19Fouls17

3Yellow Cards3

5Offsides0