Criciuma 3–1 Sampaio Correa: Result & Stats

Criciuma

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Sampaio Correa

Caio Dantas 52'

Marcelo Hermes 7'

Lucas Hipólito 5' (OG)

Gabriel Poveda 38'

6/7/2022

Serie B · Round 11Estádio Heriberto Hülse

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Criciuma52%

×Draw29%

Sampaio Correa19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CriciumaExpected goals in this matchSampaio Correa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

0.69

Criciuma

1.33

Sampaio Correa

0.69

Criciuma creates 93% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 86 away

1.37

creates per match

0.74

0.64

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Criciuma

1.37

Sampaio Correa

0.74

allows per match

Criciuma

0.64

Sampaio Correa

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Criciuma+0.00on par

Sampaio Correa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Criciuma ↓

Sampaio Correa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Criciuma or draw

81%

Criciuma or Sampaio Correa

71%

Draw or Sampaio Correa

48%

Winning margin

Criciuma wins by 2+

25%

Sampaio Correa wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Criciuma 1+ goals

74%

Criciuma 2+ goals

38%

Criciuma 3+ goals

15%

Sampaio Correa 1+ goals

50%

Sampaio Correa 2+ goals

15%

Sampaio Correa 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Criciuma (draw refunded)

73%

Sampaio Correa (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Criciuma at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.64 · 89 matches

Sampaio Correa away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.30 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Criciuma attack 1.37 + Sampaio Correa defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.33

Sampaio Correa attack 0.74 + Criciuma defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Criciuma scores more

52%

level

29%

Sampaio Correa scores more

19%

Criciuma at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Criciuma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2

Claudinho

Criciuma · D

7.5

Match Events

5'

Lucas HipólitoOwn goal

7'

Marcelo Hermes↳ Claudinho

19'

Marquinhos Gabriel

38'

Gabriel Poveda↳ Lucas Araújo

52'

Caio Dantas

55'

Eloir← Ferreira

55'

Ygor Catatau← Pimentinha

58'

Caio DantasGoal cancelled

58'

Nilson Junior

66'

Fellipe Mateus

67'

Léo Costa← Rômulo

67'

Thiago Alagoano← Bilu

68'

Wesley Pionteck← Renatinho

77'

Cristovam← Claudinho

77'

Hygor← Caio Dantas

82'

Rafael Costa← Lucas Araújo

82'

Mauricio← André Luiz

86'

Wesley Pionteck

90+2'

Gulherme Azevedo← Marquinhos Gabriel

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CriciumaSampaio

Overview

50%Possession50%

13Total Shots12

4Corners8

15Fouls14

Shots

13Total Shots12

4On Target4

7Off Target3

2Blocked5

7Inside Box6

6Outside Box6

Passing

50%Possession50%

425Total Passes414

345Accurate Passes311

81%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

15Fouls14

2Yellow Cards2

3Offsides1

Serie B: Criciuma 3–1 Sampaio Correa

Criciuma beat Sampaio Correa 3-1 in Serie B on June 7, 2022.

Goals: Lucas Hipólito (5' o.g.), Marcelo Hermes (7'), Gabriel Poveda (38'), Caio Dantas (52').

Criciuma controlled possession (50%) and registered 13 shots to 12.

The match was played at Estádio Heriberto Hülse in Criciúma, Santa Catarina.

Criciuma vs Sampaio Correa — Serie B 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie B: Criciuma 3–1 Sampaio Correa