Sampaio Correa 2–2 ABC: Result & Stats | Serie C

Sampaio Correa

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

ABC

Bruno Baio 57'

Nadson 49'

Jackson 73' (pen)

Matheus Rocha 39'

8/12/2024

Serie C · Round 17Estádio Governador João Castelo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Sampaio Correa45%

×Draw29%

ABC26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sampaio CorreaExpected goals in this matchABC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

0.86

Sampaio Correa

1.25

ABC

0.86

Sampaio Correa creates 45% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 53 away

1.36

creates per match

0.77

0.95

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Sampaio Correa

1.36

ABC

0.77

allows per match

Sampaio Correa

0.95

ABC

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sampaio Correa+0.00on par

ABC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sampaio Correa ↓

ABC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Sampaio Correa or draw

74%

Sampaio Correa or ABC

71%

Draw or ABC

55%

Winning margin

Sampaio Correa wins by 2+

20%

ABC wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Sampaio Correa 1+ goals

71%

Sampaio Correa 2+ goals

36%

Sampaio Correa 3+ goals

13%

ABC 1+ goals

58%

ABC 2+ goals

21%

ABC 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Sampaio Correa (draw refunded)

64%

ABC (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sampaio Correa at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.95 · 22 matches

ABC away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.15 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sampaio Correa attack 1.36 + ABC defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.25

ABC attack 0.77 + Sampaio Correa defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Sampaio Correa scores more

45%

level

29%

ABC scores more

26%

Sampaio Correa at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Sampaio Correa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

Pedro Paulo

ABC · G

8.7

Match Events

11'

Émerson Galego← Iago

22'

Richardson

39'

Matheus Rocha

46'

Bruno Baio← Rafael Luiz

49'

Nadson

54'

Jackson← Jenison

54'

Matheus Blade← Felipe Albuquerque

57'

Bruno Baio

66'

Ferreira← Nadson

66'

Roney← Victor Daniel

69'

Itambé

69'

Pimentinha

73'

JacksonPenalty

79'

Wellington Reis

80'

Walfrido← Wellington Reis

80'

Wallyson← Émerson Galego

83'

Gabriel Silva← João Felipe

88'

Renan Gorne← Jhonata Varela

90+10'

Renan Gorne

90+10'

Walfrido

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SampaioABC

Overview

65%Possession35%

22Total Shots6

2.71Expected Goals (xG)1.55

11Corners0

8Fouls14

Shots

22Total Shots6

10On Target4

5Off Target2

6Blocked0

15Inside Box3

7Outside Box3

Passing

65%Possession35%

465Total Passes256

374Accurate Passes187

80%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

2Saves9

Discipline

8Fouls14

3Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0

5Offsides1