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Sampaio Correa vs ABC — Serie B 2026

Sampaio Correa
Sampaio Correa
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
ABC
ABC
Simão 6' (OG)
5/20/2023Serie BSerie B · Round 7Estádio Governador João Castelo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Sampaio Correa53%
×Draw27%
ABC21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sampaio Correa
1.46
ABC
0.80

Sampaio Correa creates 83% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 23 away

creates per match

Sampaio Correa
1.41
ABC
0.70

allows per match

Sampaio Correa
0.91
ABC
1.52

finishing

Sampaio Correa+0.00on par
ABC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 61Over: 3961%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 58Yes: 4258%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sampaio Correa ↓

ABC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Sampaio Correa or draw
79%
Sampaio Correa or ABC
73%
Draw or ABC
47%

Winning margin

Sampaio Correa wins by 2+
27%
ABC wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Sampaio Correa 1+ goals
77%
Sampaio Correa 2+ goals
43%
Sampaio Correa 3+ goals
18%
ABC 1+ goals
55%
ABC 2+ goals
19%
ABC 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Sampaio Correa (draw refunded)
72%
ABC (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sampaio Correa at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.91 · 88 matches

ABC away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.52 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sampaio Correa attack 1.41 + ABC defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.46

ABC attack 0.70 + Sampaio Correa defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Sampaio Correa scores more
53%
level
27%
ABC scores more
21%

Sampaio Correa at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Sampaio Correa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
MarcinhoSampaio CorreaSampaio Correa · M
7.9

Match Events

6'
SimãoOwn goal
22'
Gedeílson← Alemão
26'
Felipe Garcia
46'
Maurício← Patrick Carvalho
46'
Eloir← Luiz Otávio
46'
Gustavo Hebling← Gedeílson
62'
De Paula← Welliton
62'
Luccas Romário← Júnior Todinho
64'
Pimentinha← Bill
71'
Caique← Thallyson
72'
Jhony Douglas← Matheus Pivô
75'
Maurício Silva dos Santos
79'
Alexandre Tam← Marcinho

Possession

Sampaio: 50ABC: 5050%Sampaio

Shots

Sampaio: 13ABC: 513Sampaio

Pass accuracy

Sampaio: 78ABC: 8149%Sampaio

Statistics

SampaioABC
Overview
50%Possession50%
13Total Shots5
6Corners0
21Fouls18
Shots
13Total Shots5
2On Target1
7Off Target3
4Blocked1
9Inside Box2
4Outside Box3
Passing
50%Possession50%
388Total Passes403
302Accurate Passes325
78%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
1Saves2
Discipline
21Fouls18
1Yellow Cards1
3Offsides1

Match Recap: Sampaio Correa vs ABC

Sampaio Correa beat ABC 1-0 in Serie B on May 20, 2023.

Goals: Simão (6' o.g.).

Sampaio Correa controlled possession (50%) and registered 13 shots to 5.

The match was played at Estádio Governador João Castelo in São Luís, Maranhão.