ABC 1–1 Sampaio Correa: Result & Stats | Serie B

ABC

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Sampaio Correa

Matheus Anjos 90+2'

Robinho 6'

9/2/2023

Serie B · Round 26Estádio Maria Lamas Farache

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

ABC36%

×Draw32%

Sampaio Correa32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ABCExpected goals in this matchSampaio Correa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

0.93

ABC

1.00

Sampaio Correa

0.93

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 23 home / 86 away

0.70

creates per match

0.74

1.13

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

ABC

0.70

Sampaio Correa

0.74

allows per match

ABC

1.13

Sampaio Correa

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ABC+0.00on par

Sampaio Correa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ABC ↓

Sampaio Correa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–114%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–114%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

ABC or draw

68%

ABC or Sampaio Correa

68%

Draw or Sampaio Correa

64%

Winning margin

ABC wins by 2+

14%

Sampaio Correa wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

ABC 1+ goals

63%

ABC 2+ goals

26%

ABC 3+ goals

8%

Sampaio Correa 1+ goals

61%

Sampaio Correa 2+ goals

24%

Sampaio Correa 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

ABC (draw refunded)

53%

Sampaio Correa (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ABC at home — creates 0.70, concedes 1.13 · 23 matches

Sampaio Correa away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.30 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ABC attack 0.70 + Sampaio Correa defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.00

Sampaio Correa attack 0.74 + ABC defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

ABC scores more

36%

level

32%

Sampaio Correa scores more

32%

ABC at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "ABC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

Matheus Anjos

ABC · F

7.7

Match Events

6'

Robinho↳ Ytalo

13'

Wallace← Wellington Reis

43'

45+2'

46'

46'

46'

46'

Thiaguinho← Cláudio Cebolinha

58'

Ytalo

62'

Maurício← Pará

62'

Alyson Neves← Pimentinha

70'

Eloir← Matheus Pivô

77'

Getterson← Ytalo

78'

Paulo Sérgio

80'

Maycon Douglas← Paulo Sérgio

86'

88'

90+6'

90+6'

90+6'

90+3'

90+10'

90+9'

90+2'

Matheus Anjos↳ Thonny Anderson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ABCSampaio

Overview

68%Possession32%

7Total Shots7

4Corners3

16Fouls27

Shots

7Total Shots7

2On Target1

3Off Target3

2Blocked3

2Inside Box0

5Outside Box7

Passing

68%Possession32%

468Total Passes217

381Accurate Passes135

81%Pass Accuracy62%

Goalkeeping

0Saves1

Discipline

16Fouls27

5Yellow Cards5

2Red Cards0

3Offsides1

Serie B: ABC 1–1 Sampaio Correa

ABC and Sampaio Correa drew 1-1 in Serie B on September 2, 2023.

Goals: Robinho (6'), Matheus Anjos (90+2').

ABC controlled possession (68%) and registered 7 shots to 7.

The match was played at Estádio Maria Lamas Farache in Natal, Rio Grande do Norte.

ABC vs Sampaio Correa — Serie B 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie B: ABC 1–1 Sampaio Correa