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Salford City vs Walsall — League Two 2018

Salford City
Salford City
Preview
15:00
Walsall
Walsall
1/23/2027League TwoLeague Two · Round 27Peninsula Stadium
Big match
44%
Salford City
model favours
44%25%31%

Salford City score first in only 33% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
54%
over 2.5 goals
57%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Salford City44%
×Draw25%
Walsall31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Salford City
1.57
Walsall
1.27

Salford City creates 24% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 13 away

creates per match

Salford City
1.95
Walsall
1.78

allows per match

Salford City
0.77
Walsall
1.20

finishing

Salford City-0.32scores less
Walsall-0.09on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salford City ↓

Walsall →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Salford City or draw
69%
Salford City or Walsall
75%
Draw or Walsall
56%

Winning margin

Salford City wins by 2+
22%
Walsall wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Salford City 1+ goals
79%
Salford City 2+ goals
46%
Salford City 3+ goals
21%
Walsall 1+ goals
72%
Walsall 2+ goals
36%
Walsall 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Salford City (draw refunded)
59%
Walsall (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salford City at home — creates 1.95, concedes 0.77 · 8 matches

Walsall away — creates 1.78, concedes 1.20 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salford City attack 1.95 + Walsall defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.57

Walsall attack 1.78 + Salford City defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Salford City scores more
44%
level
25%
Walsall scores more
31%

Salford City at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Salford City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Style contrast — Salford City play Attack-heavy, Walsall Direct / counter-attacking
  • Salford City fall short of their xG (1.3 vs 1.7 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Salford City
Attack-heavy
Walsall
Direct / counter-attacking
52%Possession43%
67%Pass accuracy63%
12.9Shots12.0
1.73xGBiggest gap1.41
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Salford CityWalsall

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

4
Salford City
1
Draws
5
Walsall
Avg goals: 2.6BTTS: 60%
1–00–12–20–21–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
City
WLLWD
Walsall
LDLLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Salford City host Walsall

January 23, 2027: Salford City take on Walsall in League Two. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Salford City host Walsall at Peninsula Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.