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Salford City vs Walsall — League Two 2018

Salford City
Salford City
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Walsall
Walsall
M. Smith 15'
O. McEntee 77'
F. Draper 59'
9/9/2023League TwoLeague Two · Round 7The Peninsula Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Salford City44%
×Draw25%
Walsall31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Salford City
1.57
Walsall
1.27

Salford City creates 24% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 13 away

creates per match

Salford City
1.95
Walsall
1.78

allows per match

Salford City
0.77
Walsall
1.20

finishing

Salford City-0.32scores less
Walsall-0.09on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salford City ↓

Walsall →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Salford City or draw
69%
Salford City or Walsall
75%
Draw or Walsall
56%

Winning margin

Salford City wins by 2+
22%
Walsall wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Salford City 1+ goals
79%
Salford City 2+ goals
46%
Salford City 3+ goals
21%
Walsall 1+ goals
72%
Walsall 2+ goals
36%
Walsall 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Salford City (draw refunded)
59%
Walsall (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salford City at home — creates 1.95, concedes 0.77 · 8 matches

Walsall away — creates 1.78, concedes 1.20 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salford City attack 1.95 + Walsall defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.57

Walsall attack 1.78 + Salford City defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Salford City scores more
44%
level
25%
Walsall scores more
31%

Salford City at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Salford City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17
M. SmithSalford CitySalford City · F
8.2

Match Events

15'
M. Smith↳ O. Ashley
46'
R. Tierney← D. Okagbue
46'
A. Oteh← J. Matt
56'
Stevie Mallan
59'
F. Draper↳ O. McEntee
65'
K. Berkoe← D. John
65'
R. Watson← C. McAleny
75'
Ossama Ashley
76'
Ryan Stirk
77'
O. McEntee
84'
M. Dackers← O. Ashley
85'
H. Williams← D. Daniels

Possession

72%Salford

Shots

20Salford

Pass accuracy

59%Salford

Statistics

SalfordWalsall
Overview
72%Possession28%
20Total Shots10
12Corners1
12Fouls12
Shots
20Total Shots10
7On Target5
7Off Target3
6Blocked2
11Inside Box6
9Outside Box4
Passing
72%Possession28%
514Total Passes212
439Accurate Passes125
85%Pass Accuracy59%
Goalkeeping
3Saves6
Discipline
12Fouls12
2Yellow Cards1
3Offsides0

League Two: Salford City 1–2 Walsall

Walsall beat Salford City 2-1 in League Two on September 9, 2023.

Goals: M. Smith (15'), F. Draper (59'), O. McEntee (77').

Salford City controlled possession (72%) and registered 20 shots to 10.

The match was played at The Peninsula Stadium in Salford, Greater Manchester.