Salford City 1–0 Walsall: Result & Stats

Salford City

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Walsall

M. Smith 5'

1/31/2023

League Two · Round 21The Peninsula Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Salford City44%

×Draw25%

Walsall31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Salford CityExpected goals in this matchWalsall

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.27

Salford City

1.57

Walsall

1.27

Salford City creates 24% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 13 away

1.95

creates per match

1.78

0.77

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Salford City

1.95

Walsall

1.78

allows per match

Salford City

0.77

Walsall

1.20

-0.32scores less than expected

finishing

-0.09on par

finishing

Salford City-0.32scores less

Walsall-0.09on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salford City ↓

Walsall →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Salford City or draw

69%

Salford City or Walsall

75%

Draw or Walsall

56%

Winning margin

Salford City wins by 2+

22%

Walsall wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Salford City 1+ goals

79%

Salford City 2+ goals

46%

Salford City 3+ goals

21%

Walsall 1+ goals

72%

Walsall 2+ goals

36%

Walsall 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Salford City (draw refunded)

59%

Walsall (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salford City at home — creates 1.95, concedes 0.77 · 8 matches

Walsall away — creates 1.78, concedes 1.20 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salford City attack 1.95 + Walsall defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.57

Walsall attack 1.78 + Salford City defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Salford City scores more

44%

level

25%

Walsall scores more

31%

Salford City at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Salford City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12

A. Cairns

Salford City · G

8.9

Match Events

5'

M. Smith↳ I. Touray

46'

Ryan Leak

51'

Hayden White

67'

R. Willmott← L. Gordon

67'

I. Hutchinson← C. Wilkinson

71'

Ethan Galbraith

73'

C. McAleny← C. Morton

85'

87'

89'

90+6'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SalfordWalsall

Overview

54%Possession46%

14Total Shots17

2Corners4

14Fouls17

Shots

14Total Shots17

2On Target6

6Off Target6

6Blocked5

8Inside Box10

6Outside Box7

Passing

54%Possession46%

298Total Passes250

172Accurate Passes130

58%Pass Accuracy52%

Goalkeeping

6Saves1

Discipline

14Fouls17

3Yellow Cards2

3Offsides0