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Salford City vs Rochdale — League Two 2018

Salford City
Salford City
Preview
14:00
Rochdale
Rochdale
4/3/2027League TwoLeague Two · Round 39Peninsula Stadium
Big match
45%
Salford City
model favours
45%27%28%

Salford City score first in only 33% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
56%
under 2.5 goals
48%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Salford City45%
×Draw27%
Rochdale28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Salford City
1.38
Rochdale
1.04

Salford City creates 33% more chances

Season form · 157 home / 56 away

creates per match

Salford City
1.40
Rochdale
0.95

allows per match

Salford City
1.14
Rochdale
1.36

finishing

Salford City+0.00on par
Rochdale+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salford City ↓

Rochdale →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Salford City or draw
72%
Salford City or Rochdale
73%
Draw or Rochdale
55%

Winning margin

Salford City wins by 2+
21%
Rochdale wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Salford City 1+ goals
75%
Salford City 2+ goals
40%
Salford City 3+ goals
16%
Rochdale 1+ goals
65%
Rochdale 2+ goals
28%
Rochdale 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Salford City (draw refunded)
61%
Rochdale (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salford City at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.14 · 157 matches

Rochdale away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.36 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salford City attack 1.40 + Rochdale defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.38

Rochdale attack 0.95 + Salford City defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Salford City scores more
45%
level
27%
Rochdale scores more
28%

Salford City at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Salford City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams scored in 5 of the last 7 meetings
  • Salford City fall short of their xG (1.4 vs 1.7 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Salford City
Attack-heavy
Rochdale
Balanced
52%Possession51%
67%Pass accuracy70%
12.9ShotsBiggest gap10.1
1.73xG—
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Salford CityRochdale

Head-to-head

7 previous meetings

2
Salford City
3
Draws
2
Rochdale
Avg goals: 2.9BTTS: 71%
2–52–10–12–21–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
City
WLLWD
Rochdale
DLDDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Salford City face Rochdale (League Two)

League Two returns with Salford City hosting Rochdale. Match starts April 3, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Salford City host Rochdale at Peninsula Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.