Rochdale 1–1 Salford City: Result & Stats

Rochdale

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Salford City

J. Ball 27'

M. Lund 66'

3/15/2022

League Two · Round 37Crown Oil Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Rochdale36%

×Draw26%

Salford City37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RochdaleExpected goals in this matchSalford City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.31

Rochdale

1.29

Salford City

1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 56 home / 156 away

1.38

creates per match

1.31

1.32

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Rochdale

1.38

Salford City

1.31

allows per match

Rochdale

1.32

Salford City

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rochdale+0.00on par

Salford City+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rochdale ↓

Salford City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Rochdale or draw

63%

Rochdale or Salford City

74%

Draw or Salford City

64%

Winning margin

Rochdale wins by 2+

16%

Salford City wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Rochdale 1+ goals

72%

Rochdale 2+ goals

37%

Rochdale 3+ goals

14%

Salford City 1+ goals

73%

Salford City 2+ goals

38%

Salford City 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Rochdale (draw refunded)

49%

Salford City (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rochdale at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.32 · 56 matches

Salford City away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.20 · 156 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rochdale attack 1.38 + Salford City defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.29

Salford City attack 1.31 + Rochdale defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Rochdale scores more

36%

level

26%

Salford City scores more

37%

Salford City at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Salford City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12

J. Dorsett

Rochdale · D

7.9

Match Events

27'

J. Ball

66'

M. Lund↳ S. Kelly

70'

C. Grant← C. OKeeffe

72'

Liam Kelly

77'

L. Bolton← A. Hunter

79'

S. Dooley← G. Broadbent

81'

D. Love← I. Touray

86'

M. Done← L. Kelly

88'

M. Willock← M. Lund

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RochdaleSalford

Overview

46%Possession54%

7Total Shots16

1Corners3

14Fouls12

Shots

7Total Shots16

3On Target2

3Off Target7

1Blocked7

6Inside Box13

1Outside Box3

Passing

46%Possession54%

396Total Passes464

276Accurate Passes365

70%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

14Fouls12

1Yellow Cards0

1Offsides1