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Rochdale vs Salford City — League Two 2018

Rochdale
Rochdale
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Salford City
Salford City
I. Henderson 80'
11/8/2022League TwoLeague Two · Round 8Crown Oil Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Rochdale36%
×Draw26%
Salford City37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rochdale
1.29
Salford City
1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 56 home / 156 away

creates per match

Rochdale
1.38
Salford City
1.31

allows per match

Rochdale
1.32
Salford City
1.20

finishing

Rochdale+0.00on par
Salford City+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rochdale ↓

Salford City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Rochdale or draw
63%
Rochdale or Salford City
74%
Draw or Salford City
64%

Winning margin

Rochdale wins by 2+
16%
Salford City wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Rochdale 1+ goals
72%
Rochdale 2+ goals
37%
Rochdale 3+ goals
14%
Salford City 1+ goals
73%
Salford City 2+ goals
38%
Salford City 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Rochdale (draw refunded)
49%
Salford City (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rochdale at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.32 · 56 matches

Salford City away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.20 · 156 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rochdale attack 1.38 + Salford City defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.29

Salford City attack 1.31 + Rochdale defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Rochdale scores more
36%
level
26%
Salford City scores more
37%

Salford City at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Salford City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6
E. WattSalford CitySalford City · M
8.0

Match Events

61'
Abraham Odoh
61'
Ethan Galbraith
63'
O. Bailey← M. Dackers
67'
E. Brierley← T. Sinclair
80'
I. Henderson↳ E. Brierley
81'
Elliot Simões← R. Leak

Possession

35%Rochdale

Shots

9Rochdale

Pass accuracy

46%Rochdale

Statistics

RochdaleSalford
Overview
35%Possession65%
9Total Shots11
5Corners2
8Fouls9
Shots
9Total Shots11
2On Target1
2Off Target6
5Blocked4
5Inside Box8
4Outside Box3
Passing
35%Possession65%
315Total Passes600
243Accurate Passes538
77%Pass Accuracy90%
Goalkeeping
1Saves1
Discipline
8Fouls9
1Yellow Cards1
1Offsides2

League Two: Rochdale 1–0 Salford City

Rochdale beat Salford City 1-0 in League Two on November 8, 2022.

Goals: I. Henderson (80').

Salford City controlled possession (65%) and registered 11 shots to 9.

The match was played at Crown Oil Arena in Rochdale, Greater Manchester.