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Salford City vs Rochdale — League Two 2018

Salford City
Salford City
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Rochdale
Rochdale
C. McAleny 63'
M. Smith 10'
S. Quigley 81' (pen)
2/4/2023League TwoLeague Two · Round 30The Peninsula Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Salford City45%
×Draw27%
Rochdale28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Salford City
1.38
Rochdale
1.04

Salford City creates 33% more chances

Season form · 157 home / 56 away

creates per match

Salford City
1.40
Rochdale
0.95

allows per match

Salford City
1.14
Rochdale
1.36

finishing

Salford City+0.00on par
Rochdale+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salford City ↓

Rochdale →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Salford City or draw
72%
Salford City or Rochdale
73%
Draw or Rochdale
55%

Winning margin

Salford City wins by 2+
21%
Rochdale wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Salford City 1+ goals
75%
Salford City 2+ goals
40%
Salford City 3+ goals
16%
Rochdale 1+ goals
65%
Rochdale 2+ goals
28%
Rochdale 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Salford City (draw refunded)
61%
Rochdale (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salford City at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.14 · 157 matches

Rochdale away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.36 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salford City attack 1.40 + Rochdale defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.38

Rochdale attack 0.95 + Salford City defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Salford City scores more
45%
level
27%
Rochdale scores more
28%

Salford City at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Salford City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17
M. SmithSalford CitySalford City · F
8.7

Match Events

10'
M. Smith↳ E. Watt
46'
L. Bolton← L. Barry
63'
C. McAleny↳ M. Smith
76'
D. Lloyd-McGoldrick← D. Bughail-Mellor
76'
A. Odoh← F. Seriki
81'
Ryan Watson
81'
S. QuigleyPenalty
82'
C. Morton← C. McAleny
90+11'
Matt Smith
90+6'
Max Taylor
90+8'
D. Rodney← M. Taylor

Possession

48%Salford

Shots

14Salford

Pass accuracy

48%Salford

Statistics

SalfordRochdale
Overview
48%Possession52%
14Total Shots10
4Corners7
12Fouls16
Shots
14Total Shots10
3On Target5
7Off Target1
4Blocked4
8Inside Box6
6Outside Box4
Passing
48%Possession52%
330Total Passes351
209Accurate Passes241
63%Pass Accuracy69%
Goalkeeping
4Saves1
Discipline
12Fouls16
2Yellow Cards1
1Offsides4

Match Recap: Salford City vs Rochdale

Salford City beat Rochdale 2-1 in League Two on February 4, 2023.

Goals: M. Smith (10'), C. McAleny (63'), S. Quigley (81' pen).

Rochdale controlled possession (52%) and registered 10 shots to 14.

The match was played at The Peninsula Stadium in Salford, Greater Manchester.