Salford City 1–0 Milton Keynes Dons: Result & Stats

Salford City

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Milton Keynes Dons

F. Okoronkwo 42'

9/2/2024

League Two · Round 4The Peninsula Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Salford City42%

×Draw25%

Milton Keynes Dons34%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Salford CityExpected goals in this matchMilton Keynes Dons

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.34

Salford City

1.52

Milton Keynes Dons

1.34

Salford City creates 13% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 59 away

1.42

creates per match

1.53

1.15

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Salford City

1.42

Milton Keynes Dons

1.53

allows per match

Salford City

1.15

Milton Keynes Dons

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Salford City+0.00on par

Milton Keynes Dons+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salford City ↓

Milton Keynes Dons →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Salford City or draw

66%

Salford City or Milton Keynes Dons

75%

Draw or Milton Keynes Dons

58%

Winning margin

Salford City wins by 2+

20%

Milton Keynes Dons wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Salford City 1+ goals

78%

Salford City 2+ goals

45%

Salford City 3+ goals

20%

Milton Keynes Dons 1+ goals

74%

Milton Keynes Dons 2+ goals

39%

Milton Keynes Dons 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Salford City (draw refunded)

55%

Milton Keynes Dons (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salford City at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.15 · 48 matches

Milton Keynes Dons away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.61 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salford City attack 1.42 + Milton Keynes Dons defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.52

Milton Keynes Dons attack 1.53 + Salford City defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Salford City scores more

42%

level

25%

Milton Keynes Dons scores more

34%

Salford City at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Salford City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

J. Jones

Salford City · G

8.7

Match Events

42'

F. Okoronkwo↳ C. Stockton

60'

Tom Edwards

61'

S. Finch← S. Wearne

61'

T. Leigh← L. Kelly

62'

H. Adelakun← F. Okoronkwo

71'

R. Watson← B. Woodburn

71'

K. Kouassi← C. Stockton

71'

E. Harrison← C. Hendry

80'

H. Mnoga← D. Chesters

90+1'

M. Williams← S. Finch

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SalfordMilton

Overview

47%Possession53%

13Total Shots16

4Corners5

11Fouls9

Shots

13Total Shots16

6On Target5

5Off Target6

2Blocked5

9Inside Box11

4Outside Box5

Passing

47%Possession53%

438Total Passes505

356Accurate Passes420

81%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

6Saves4

Discipline

11Fouls9

1Yellow Cards0

1Offsides0