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Milton Keynes Dons vs Salford City — League Two 2024

Milton Keynes Dons
Milton Keynes Dons
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Salford City
Salford City
H. Adelakun 34'
1/4/2025League TwoLeague Two · Round 25Stadium MK

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Milton Keynes Dons43%
×Draw26%
Salford City30%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Milton Keynes Dons
1.43
Salford City
1.15

Milton Keynes Dons creates 24% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 49 away

creates per match

Milton Keynes Dons
1.64
Salford City
1.27

allows per match

Milton Keynes Dons
1.03
Salford City
1.22

finishing

Milton Keynes Dons+0.00on par
Salford City+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Milton Keynes Dons ↓

Salford City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Milton Keynes Dons or draw
70%
Milton Keynes Dons or Salford City
74%
Draw or Salford City
57%

Winning margin

Milton Keynes Dons wins by 2+
21%
Salford City wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Milton Keynes Dons 1+ goals
76%
Milton Keynes Dons 2+ goals
42%
Milton Keynes Dons 3+ goals
17%
Salford City 1+ goals
68%
Salford City 2+ goals
32%
Salford City 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Milton Keynes Dons (draw refunded)
59%
Salford City (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Milton Keynes Dons at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.03 · 61 matches

Salford City away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.22 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Milton Keynes Dons attack 1.64 + Salford City defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.43

Salford City attack 1.27 + Milton Keynes Dons defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Milton Keynes Dons scores more
43%
level
26%
Salford City scores more
30%

Milton Keynes Dons at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Milton Keynes Dons will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13
M. YoungSalford CitySalford City · G
7.9

Match Events

34'
H. Adelakun
50'
Ossama Ashley
52'
Curtis Tilt
69'
Ryan Watson
69'
B. Ilunga← A. Nemane
69'
S. Hogan← L. Kelly
75'
M. Lund← R. Watson
78'
Liam Shephard
82'
K. Kouassi← C. Stockton
82'
J. Taylor← H. Mnoga
83'
S. Negru← K. Berkoe
90+4'
C. McAleny← H. Adelakun

Possession

56%Milton

Shots

14Milton

Pass accuracy

51%Milton

Statistics

MiltonSalford
Overview
56%Possession44%
14Total Shots18
3Corners3
15Fouls18
Shots
14Total Shots18
5On Target3
5Off Target9
4Blocked6
7Inside Box9
7Outside Box9
Passing
56%Possession44%
415Total Passes317
310Accurate Passes224
75%Pass Accuracy71%
Goalkeeping
2Saves5
Discipline
15Fouls18
0Yellow Cards4
2Offsides2

League Two: Milton Keynes Dons 0–1 Salford City

Salford City beat Milton Keynes Dons 1-0 in League Two on January 4, 2025.

Goals: H. Adelakun (34').

Milton Keynes Dons controlled possession (56%) and registered 14 shots to 18.

The match was played at Stadium MK in Milton Keynes, Buckinghamshire.