Milton Keynes Dons 3–1 Salford City: Result & Stats

Milton Keynes Dons

FT

3 – 1

HT: 3 – 1

Salford City

M. Smith 45+7' (OG)

A. Gilbey 31'

K. Lofthouse 27'

M. Smith 12'

3/9/2024

League Two · Round 37Stadium mk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Milton Keynes Dons43%

×Draw26%

Salford City30%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Milton Keynes DonsExpected goals in this matchSalford City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.15

Milton Keynes Dons

1.43

Salford City

1.15

Milton Keynes Dons creates 24% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 49 away

1.64

creates per match

1.27

1.03

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Milton Keynes Dons

1.64

Salford City

1.27

allows per match

Milton Keynes Dons

1.03

Salford City

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Milton Keynes Dons+0.00on par

Salford City+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Milton Keynes Dons ↓

Salford City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Milton Keynes Dons or draw

70%

Milton Keynes Dons or Salford City

74%

Draw or Salford City

57%

Winning margin

Milton Keynes Dons wins by 2+

21%

Salford City wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Milton Keynes Dons 1+ goals

76%

Milton Keynes Dons 2+ goals

42%

Milton Keynes Dons 3+ goals

17%

Salford City 1+ goals

68%

Salford City 2+ goals

32%

Salford City 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Milton Keynes Dons (draw refunded)

59%

Salford City (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Milton Keynes Dons at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.03 · 61 matches

Salford City away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.22 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Milton Keynes Dons attack 1.64 + Salford City defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.43

Salford City attack 1.27 + Milton Keynes Dons defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Milton Keynes Dons scores more

43%

level

26%

Salford City scores more

30%

Milton Keynes Dons at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Milton Keynes Dons will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

M. Smith

Salford City · F

9.0

Match Events

12'

M. Smith↳ J. Luamba

20'

Connor McLennan

27'

K. Lofthouse↳ A. Gilbey

31'

A. Gilbey↳ J. Payne

45+7'

M. SmithOwn goal

54'

Matt Smith

58'

M. Lund← R. Watson

59'

C. Hendry← C. McLennan

62'

E. Harrison← M. Dennis

63'

63'

71'

74'

74'

74'

77'

81'

82'

86'

K. Malcolm← J. Luamba

89'

C. Norman← L. Bate

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MiltonSalford

Overview

53%Possession47%

9Total Shots9

5Corners2

10Fouls16

Shots

9Total Shots9

6On Target6

2Off Target3

1Blocked0

6Inside Box8

3Outside Box1

Passing

53%Possession47%

352Total Passes291

235Accurate Passes183

67%Pass Accuracy63%

Goalkeeping

5Saves3

Discipline

10Fouls16

2Yellow Cards5

5Offsides6