Salford City 2–4 Milton Keynes Dons: Result & Stats

Salford City

FT

2 – 4

HT: 2 – 1

Milton Keynes Dons

R. Watson 45+2' (pen)

K. N’Mai 36'

E. Harrison 88'

J. Tomlinson 72', 50'

M. Dean 10'

11/25/2023

League Two · Round 19The Peninsula Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Salford City41%

×Draw25%

Milton Keynes Dons34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Salford CityExpected goals in this matchMilton Keynes Dons

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.34

Salford City

1.48

Milton Keynes Dons

1.34

Salford City creates 10% more chances

Season form · 158 home / 93 away

1.40

creates per match

1.54

1.15

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Salford City

1.40

Milton Keynes Dons

1.54

allows per match

Salford City

1.15

Milton Keynes Dons

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Salford City+0.00on par

Milton Keynes Dons+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salford City ↓

Milton Keynes Dons →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Salford City or draw

66%

Salford City or Milton Keynes Dons

75%

Draw or Milton Keynes Dons

59%

Winning margin

Salford City wins by 2+

20%

Milton Keynes Dons wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Salford City 1+ goals

77%

Salford City 2+ goals

43%

Salford City 3+ goals

19%

Milton Keynes Dons 1+ goals

74%

Milton Keynes Dons 2+ goals

39%

Milton Keynes Dons 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Salford City (draw refunded)

54%

Milton Keynes Dons (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salford City at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.15 · 158 matches

Milton Keynes Dons away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.56 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salford City attack 1.40 + Milton Keynes Dons defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.48

Milton Keynes Dons attack 1.54 + Salford City defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Salford City scores more

41%

level

25%

Milton Keynes Dons scores more

34%

Salford City at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Salford City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

J. Tomlinson

Milton Keynes Dons · M

8.6

Match Events

10'

M. Dean↳ C. Grant

33'

Matthew Lund

36'

K. N’Mai↳ C. McLennan

45+2'

R. WatsonPenalty

50'

J. Tomlinson↳ A. Gilbey

64'

67'

72'

73'

77'

E. Harrison← C. Grant

85'

J. Luamba← C. McLennan

85'

J. Leko← M. Dean

88'

E. Harrison

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SalfordMilton

Overview

37%Possession63%

9Total Shots16

2Corners2

15Fouls12

Shots

9Total Shots16

4On Target5

2Off Target6

3Blocked5

5Inside Box8

4Outside Box8

Passing

37%Possession63%

334Total Passes569

247Accurate Passes467

74%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

15Fouls12

2Yellow Cards2

1Offsides1